Under The Knife with TheSharpSurgeon (04/13/22)

Atlanta Hawks -5.5

(A) Charlotte Hornets (43-39) vs. (H) Atlanta Hawks (43-39)
7:00 PM EST

Play:
Atlanta Hawks -5.5 (1 Unit) [BETMGM]

Model Prediction:

The Atlanta Hawks have a forecast 80% chance of winning with a spread of -14 and an over/under of 237.5.

Atlanta Hawks 126 - Charlotte Hornets 111

Vegas Prediction/Line
:

The Atlanta Hawks have a forecast 66% chance of winning with a spread of -5.5 and an over/under of 235.5.

Atlanta Hawks 121 - Charlotte Hornets 115

Previous Games:

(H) Charlotte Hornets 116 - Atlanta Hawks 106 (03/16/22)

Atlanta Hawks 113 - (H) Charlotte Hornets 91 (01/23/22)

Charlotte Hornets 130 - (H) Atlanta Hawks 127 (12/05/21)

(H) Atlanta Hawks 115 - Charlotte Hornets 105 (11/20/21)

Schedule:

Atlanta: 2 Days Rest

Charlotte: 2 Days Rest


Expected Status:

(ATL) John Collins OUT
(ATL) Lou Williams OUT
(CHA) Gordon Hayward OUT

Opening Line: ATL -4 / 239

Current Line: ATL -5.5 / 235.5

Public Consensus: Atlanta 60% / Charlotte 40%

Summary: We use Sharp's exclusive prediction model as a baseline.

The model predicts Atlanta to be the favorite (80%) with a spread of -14 and an over/under of 237.5.

The loser of this game will be eliminated from playoff contention.

Atlanta has won 7 out of their last 9 games.

Charlotte has won 6 out of their last 9 games.

The regular season matchups are even at 2 wins each. Atlanta has won by a margin of
22 and 10 in their victories. Charlotte has won by a margin of 10 and 3 in theirs.

The Hornets have played Trae Young particularly well defensively in the past. It can be expected that their main focus is to limit the young superstar. It worked last game, as they were able to keep Trae Young to only 9 points. Atlanta will look to lean more heavily on Deandre Hunter and Clint Capela who provided 38 combined points.

Both teams are all-in facing elimination. The game plan will be to limit Trae Young, but he is not one to shy away from the challenge or the pressure. If the model plays out and we get consistent effort from Atlanta's role players, we should see Atlanta run away with this one.

With a model prediction spread difference of 9.5 and previous wins of 10+, the best play should be to take the spread of Atlanta -5.5 as opposed to the moneyline.


This analysis was provided by TheSharpSurgeon. TheSharpSurgeon is currently +5.47 Units with a 13% ROI on a 18-28-2 sample. You can follow and track TheSharpSurgeon's bets on The Sharp App available on the Apple App Store and on Google play. Visit Sharp.App for more details.