WTA Womens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 13, 2024

We will add new sports and models as we continue to build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my models for upcoming Tennis matchups as often as possible. Be on the lookout during the day because there may be multiple tournaments worldwide.

Reading the model is very simple. I have the line posted at one of the sportsbooks. I will post which book the lines were taken from each day. I will then show what my model thinks the line should be. The last column is the most important. That is the edge I see based on the difference in my line and the bettable line. 

The natural reaction would be to be all lines with an edge. I tend to be slightly conservative and look for a 5% edge or greater to make a wager. With tennis (and soccer) I tend to be a bit leery of very large edges. 15-20% or more can mean there is something the model is not picking up, perhaps an injury or some pretty sharp bettors pushing the line to the side we are showing as a high negative edge. This could be a good fade opportunity. That is, betting against the player we show to have an edge.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often. 

I sometimes like to bet those on the spread line on matches where we see an edge, but the line is very high. Preferably sets, but you may also look at the game spread line. This is because there is a high likelihood that the big dog will win the match, but there may be value in betting on the spread. You can split the bet up and do both as well.

Today's lines are taken from Draftkings.

Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Naomi Osaka -125 162 -17% Rome
Qinwen Zheng 100 -162 12% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Madison Keys -160 -137 -4% Rome
Sorana Cirstea 130 137 -1% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Coco Gauff -210 -217 1% Rome
Paula Badosa 170 217 -5% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Iga Swiatek -3000 -2720 0% Rome
Angelique Kerber 1600 2720 -2% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Alize Cornet 135 -151 18% Paris
Yuliia Starodubtseva -165 151 -22% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Diana Shnaider -350 -179 -14% Paris
Greet Minnen 275 179 9% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Simona Halep -280 -347 4% Paris
Mccartney Kessler 225 347 -8% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Anastasia Zakharova 320 775 -12% Paris
Diane Parry -425 -775 8% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Harriet Dart 205 195 1% Paris
Katie Boulter -255 -195 -6% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Fiona Ferro 195 222 -3% Paris
Lois Boisson -240 -222 -2% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Taylah Preston 225 282 -5% Paris
Cristina Bucsa -280 -282 0% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Aliaksandra Sasnovich -110 136 -10% Paris
Katie Volynets -110 -136 5% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Ana Bogdan -185 -246 6% Paris
Varvara Gracheva 150 246 -11% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Yuriko Miyazaki 265 446 -9% Paris
Erika Andreeva -330 -446 5% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Chloe Paquet 130 182 -8% Paris
Viktoriya Tomova -160 -182 3% Clay