Statsational ATP Model US Open August 29
John Alesia
We will add new sports and models as we continue to build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.I will post my models for upcoming Tennis matchups as often as possible. Be on the lookout during the day because there may be multiple tournaments worldwide.Reading the model is very simple. I have the line posted at one of the sportsbooks. I will post which book the lines were taken from each day. I will then show what my model thinks the line should be. The last column is the most important. That is the edge I see based on the difference in my line and the bettable line. The natural reaction would be to be all lines with an edge. I tend to be slightly conservative and look for a 5% edge or greater to make a wager. With tennis (and soccer) I tend to be a bit leery of very large edges. 15-20% or more can mean there is something the model is not picking up, perhaps an injury or some pretty sharp bettors pushing the line to the side we are showing as a high negative edge. This could be a good fade opportunity. That is, betting against the player we show to have an edge.You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a great edge losing often. On matches where we see an edge, but the line is very high, I sometimes like to bet those on the spread line. Preferably sets, but you may also look at the game spread line. The reason for this is a high unlikelihood that the big dog wins the match, but there may be value in betting on the spread. You can split the bet up and do both as well.Today's lines are taken from Draftkings.
August 29
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Alexander Zverev | -1100 | -445 | -10% |
Aleksandar Vukic | 650 | 445 | 5% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Ugo Humbert | 140 | -107 | 10% |
Matteo Berrettini | -175 | 107 | -15% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Max Purcell | -210 | -225 | 1% |
Christopher Oconnell | 170 | 225 | -6% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Nicolas Jarry | -225 | -173 | -6% |
Luca Van Assche | 180 | 173 | 1% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Diego Schwartzman | -170 | -133 | -6% |
Arthur Rinderknech | 135 | 133 | 0% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Tallon Griekspoor | -180 | -160 | -3% |
Arthur Fils | 145 | 160 | -2% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Jason Kubler | -105 | 112 | -4% |
Matteo Arnaldi | -115 | -112 | -1% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
James Duckworth | 105 | -135 | 9% |
Felipe Meligeni Alves | -130 | 135 | -14% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Andy Murray | -340 | -245 | -6% |
Corentin Moutet | 265 | 245 | 2% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Alex Molcan | 425 | 348 | 3% |
Grigor Dimitrov | -575 | -348 | -8% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Alexander Shevchenko | 320 | 403 | -4% |
Cameron Norrie | -425 | -403 | -1% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Karen Khachanov | -150 | -246 | 11% |
Michael Mmoh | 120 | 246 | -17% |
Albert Ramos | 270 | 167 | 10% |
Alex Michelsen | -350 | -167 | -15% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Daniel Altmaier | -125 | 123 | -11% |
Constant Lestienne | 105 | -123 | 6% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Thanasi Kokkinakis | -600 | -2092 | 10% |
Yu Hsiou Hsu | 425 | 2092 | -14% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Sebastian Baez | 155 | 176 | -3% |
Borna Coric | -190 | -176 | -2% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Facundo Diaz Acosta | 215 | 496 | -15% |
John Isner | -270 | -496 | 10% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Emil Ruusuvuori | 245 | 307 | -4% |
Andrey Rublev | -310 | -307 | 0% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Marc Andrea Huesler | 700 | 1045 | -4% |
Hubert Hurkacz | -1200 | -1045 | -1% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Stan Wawrinka | -180 | -126 | -9% |
Yoshihito Nishioka | 145 | 126 | 3% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Radu Albot | 275 | 321 | -3% |
Jack Draper | -360 | -321 | -2% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Botic Van De Zandschulp | 185 | 112 | 12% |
Jordan Thompson | -235 | -112 | -17% |
Players | Actual Line | Sharp App Line | EDGE |
Tomas Martin Etcheverry | -180 | -133 | -7% |
Otto Virtanen | 145 | 133 | 2% |
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