Sharp App: Data-Driven Sports Betting Tools & AI Prop Modeling
  • Login
  • Sign up

Statsational ATP Model March 1

John Alesia
John Alesia

We will add new sports and models as we continue to build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my models for upcoming Tennis matchups as often as possible. Be on the lookout during the day because there may be multiple tournaments worldwide.

Reading the model is very simple. I have the line posted at one of the sportsbooks. I will post which book the lines were taken from each day. I will then show what my model thinks the line should be. The last column is the most important. That is the edge I see based on the difference in my line and the bettable line.

The natural reaction would be to be all lines with an edge. I tend to be slightly conservative and look for a 5% edge or greater to make a wager. With tennis (and soccer), I tend to be a bit leery of very large edges. 15-20% or more can mean there is something the model is not picking up, perhaps an injury or some pretty sharp bettors pushing the line to the side we are showing as a high negative edge. This could be a good fade opportunity. That is, betting against the player we show to have an edge.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a great edge losing often.

On matches where we see an edge, but the line is very high, I sometimes like to bet those on the spread line. Preferably sets, but you may also look at the game spread line. The reason for this is a high unlikelihood that the big dog wins the match, but there may be value in betting on the spread. You can split the bet up and do both as well.

Today's lines are taken from Draftkings.

If these are hard to read, join the discord. I post them in there as well.


March 1

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

205

308

-8%

Andrey Rublev

-260

-308

3%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Botic Van De Zandschulp

-120

107

-6%

Mikael Ymer

-105

-107

1%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Alexander Zverev

-360

-545

6%

Christopher Oconnell

270

545

-12%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Lorenzo Sonego

255

392

-8%

Felix Auger Aliassime

-340

-392

2%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Thanasi Kokkinakis

110

172

-11%

Borna Coric

-140

-172

5%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Pavel Kotov

425

510

-3%

Hubert Hurkacz

-650

-510

-3%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Novak Djokovic

-1200

-3746

5%

Tallon Griekspoor

700

3746

-10%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Daniil Medvedev

-650

-566

-2%

Alexander Bublik

450

566

-3%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Lorenzo Musetti

-210

-198

-1%

Jaume Munar

160

198

-5%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Yannick Hanfmann

-158

126

-17%

Roberto Carballes Baena

118

-126

10%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Taro Daniel

265

498

-11%

Casper Ruud

-350

-498

5%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Feliciano Lopez

700

587

2%

Frances Tiafoe

-1400

-587

-8%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Mackenzie Mcdonald

-120

126

-10%

Brandon Nakashima

100

-126

6%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Michael Mmoh

210

395

-12%

Tommy Paul

-275

-395

6%

Offers

There are no promotional offers available for the selected region.

More Tennis

Val's ATP 3rd Round French Open Play

Val's ATP 3rd Round French Open Play

WTA Womens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 29, 2024

WTA Womens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 29, 2024

ATP Mens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 29, 2024

ATP Mens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 29, 2024

ATP Mens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 27, 2024

ATP Mens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 27, 2024

WTA Womens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 27, 2024

WTA Womens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 27, 2024

WTA Womens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 26, 2024

WTA Womens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 26, 2024

See More