Statsational ATP & WTA Australian Open Model Jan 20/21

John Alesia
John Alesia

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will add new sports and models. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my models for upcoming Tennis matchups as often as possible. Be on the lookout during the day because there may be multiple tournaments worldwide.

Reading the model is very simple. I have the line posted at one of the sportsbooks. I will post which book the lines were taken from each day. I will then show what my model thinks the line should be. The last column is the most important. That is the edge I see based on the difference in my line and the bettable line.

The natural reaction would be to be all lines with an edge. I tend to be slightly conservative and look for a 5% edge or greater to make a wager. With tennis (and soccer) I tend to be a bit leery of very large edges. 15-20% or more can mean there is something the model is not picking up, perhaps an injury or some pretty sharp bettors pushing the line to the side we are showing as a high negative edge. This could be a good fade opportunity. That is, betting against the player we show to have an edge.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a great edge losing often.

On matches where we see an edge, but the line is very high, I sometimes like to bet those on the spread line. Preferably sets, but you may also look at the game spread line. The reason for this is a high unlikelihood that the big dog wins the match, but there may be value in betting on the spread. You can split the bet up and do both as well.

Today's lines are taken from Draftkings.


January 20/21

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Grigor Dimitrov

450

730

-6%

Novak Djokovic

-600

-730

2%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Andrey Rublev

-390

-291

-5%

Daniel Evans

295

291

0%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Andrey Rublev

-390

-291

-5%

Daniel Evans

295

291

0%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Benjamin Bonzi

290

407

-6%

Alex De Minaur

-380

-407

1%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Ugo Humbert

350

805

-11%

Holger Rune

-475

-805

6%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

J J Wolf

-295

-275

-1%

Michael Mmoh

235

275

-3%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Tommy Paul

-145

-158

2%

Jenson Brooksby

120

158

-7%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Alexei Popyrin

-130

-136

1%

Ben Shelton

105

136

-6%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Andy Murray

250

164

9%

Roberto Bautista Agut

-320

-164

-14%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Laura Siegemund

550

421

4%

Caroline Garcia

-800

-421

-8%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Camila Giorgi

330

295

2%

Belinda Bencic

-450

-295

-7%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Varvara Gracheva

285

525

-10%

Karolina Pliskova

-370

-525

5%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Magda Linette

155

114

7%

Ekaterina Alexandrova

-185

-114

-12%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Shuai Zhang

-265

-330

4%

Katie Volynets

210

330

-9%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Linda Fruhvirtova

240

357

-8%

Marketa Vondrousova

-300

-357

3%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Nuria Parrizas Diaz

200

255

-5%

Donna Vekic

-250

-255

0%

Players

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Aryna Sabalenka

-450

-302

-7%

Elise Mertens

330

302

2%