ATP Womens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 11, 2024

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I will post my models for upcoming Tennis matchups as often as possible. Be on the lookout during the day because there may be multiple tournaments worldwide.

Reading the model is very simple. I have the line posted at one of the sportsbooks. I will post which book the lines were taken from each day. I will then show what my model thinks the line should be. The last column is the most important. That is the edge I see based on the difference in my line and the bettable line. 

The natural reaction would be to be all lines with an edge. I tend to be slightly conservative and look for a 5% edge or greater to make a wager. With tennis (and soccer) I tend to be a bit leery of very large edges. 15-20% or more can mean there is something the model is not picking up, perhaps an injury or some pretty sharp bettors pushing the line to the side we are showing as a high negative edge. This could be a good fade opportunity. That is, betting against the player we show to have an edge.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often. 

I sometimes like to bet those on the spread line on matches where we see an edge, but the line is very high. Preferably sets, but you may also look at the game spread line. This is because there is a high likelihood that the big dog will win the match, but there may be value in betting on the spread. You can split the bet up and do both as well.

Today's lines are taken from Draftkings.

Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Iga Swiatek -2000 -1059 -4% Rome
Yulia Putintseva 1300 1059 1% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Paula Badosa -175 -188 2% Rome
Diana Shnaider 140 188 -7% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Angelique Kerber -145 -102 -9% Rome
Aliaksandra Sasnovich 120 102 4% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Daria Kasatkina -130 -362 22% Rome
Naomi Osaka 105 362 -27% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Beatriz Haddad Maia -110 -119 2% Rome
Madison Keys -110 119 -7% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Linda Noskova 150 237 -10% Rome
Qinwen Zheng -185 -237 5% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Sorana Cirstea 215 182 4% Rome
Marketa Vondrousova -265 -182 -8% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Coco Gauff -800 -319 -13% Rome
Jaqueline Cristian 600 319 10% Clay