We will add new sports and models as we continue to build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.
I will post my models for upcoming Tennis matchups as often as possible. Be on the lookout during the day because there may be multiple tournaments worldwide.
Reading the model is very simple. I have the line posted at one of the sportsbooks. I will post which book the lines were taken from each day. I will then show what my model thinks the line should be. The last column is the most important. That is the edge I see based on the difference in my line and the bettable line.
The natural reaction would be to be all lines with an edge. I tend to be slightly conservative and look for a 5% edge or greater to make a wager. With tennis (and soccer) I tend to be a bit leery of very large edges. 15-20% or more can mean there is something the model is not picking up, perhaps an injury or some pretty sharp bettors pushing the line to the side we are showing as a high negative edge. This could be a good fade opportunity. That is, betting against the player we show to have an edge.
You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.
I sometimes like to bet those on the spread line on matches where we see an edge, but the line is very high. Preferably sets, but you may also look at the game spread line. This is because there is a high likelihood that the big dog will win the match, but there may be value in betting on the spread. You can split the bet up and do both as well.
Today's lines are taken from Draftkings.
Players |
Actual Line |
Sharp App Line |
EDGE |
Tournament |
Rinky Hijikata |
550 |
560 |
0% |
Rome |
Jaume Munar |
-800 |
-560 |
-4% |
Clay |
|
|
|
|
|
Players |
Actual Line |
Sharp App Line |
EDGE |
Tournament |
Thiago Seyboth Wild |
-255 |
-231 |
-2% |
Rome |
Gregoire Barrere |
205 |
231 |
-3% |
Clay |
|
|
|
|
|
Players |
Actual Line |
Sharp App Line |
EDGE |
Tournament |
Dominik Koepfer |
-145 |
-158 |
2% |
Rome |
Andrea Vavassori |
120 |
158 |
-7% |
Clay |
|
|
|
|
|
Players |
Actual Line |
Sharp App Line |
EDGE |
Tournament |
Alexei Popyrin |
-120 |
-137 |
3% |
Rome |
Hamad Medjedovic |
100 |
137 |
-8% |
Clay |
|
|
|
|
|
Players |
Actual Line |
Sharp App Line |
EDGE |
Tournament |
Stefano Napolitano |
-235 |
-136 |
-12% |
Rome |
J J Wolf |
190 |
136 |
8% |
Clay |
|
|
|
|
|
Players |
Actual Line |
Sharp App Line |
EDGE |
Tournament |
Zizou Bergs |
500 |
385 |
4% |
Rome |
Rafael Nadal |
-650 |
-385 |
-7% |
Clay |
|
|
|
|
|
Players |
Actual Line |
Sharp App Line |
EDGE |
Tournament |
Emil Ruusuvuori |
-150 |
-120 |
-5% |
Rome |
Marcos Giron |
125 |
120 |
1% |
Clay |
|
|
|
|
|
Players |
Actual Line |
Sharp App Line |
EDGE |
Tournament |
Alexandre Muller |
170 |
293 |
-12% |
Rome |
Marton Fucsovics |
-205 |
-293 |
7% |
Clay |
|
|
|
|
|
Players |
Actual Line |
Sharp App Line |
EDGE |
Tournament |
Nicolas Moreno De Alboran |
140 |
196 |
-8% |
Rome |
Botic Van De Zandschulp |
-170 |
-196 |
3% |
Clay |
|
|
|
|
|
Players |
Actual Line |
Sharp App Line |
EDGE |
Tournament |
Roberto Carballes Baena |
-220 |
-125 |
-13% |
Rome |
Christopher Oconnell |
180 |
125 |
9% |
Clay |
|
|
|
|
|
Players |
Actual Line |
Sharp App Line |
EDGE |
Tournament |
Tomas Machac |
150 |
151 |
0% |
Rome |
Matteo Arnaldi |
-185 |
-151 |
-5% |
Clay |
|
|
|
|
|
Players |
Actual Line |
Sharp App Line |
EDGE |
Tournament |
Mackenzie Mcdonald |
285 |
236 |
4% |
Rome |
Aslan Karatsev |
-370 |
-236 |
-8% |
Clay |
|
|
|
|
|
Players |
Actual Line |
Sharp App Line |
EDGE |
Tournament |
Jack Draper |
-150 |
138 |
-18% |
Rome |
Borna Coric |
120 |
-138 |
12% |
Clay |
|
|
|
|
|
Players |
Actual Line |
Sharp App Line |
EDGE |
Tournament |
Daniel Altmaier |
-135 |
-112 |
-5% |
Rome |
Luca Nardi |
110 |
112 |
-1% |
Clay |
|
|
|
|
|
Players |
Actual Line |
Sharp App Line |
EDGE |
Tournament |
Jan Lennard Struff |
-380 |
-470 |
3% |
Rome |
Pedro Cachin |
295 |
470 |
-8% |
Clay |
|
|
|
|
|
Players |
Actual Line |
Sharp App Line |
EDGE |
Tournament |
Dusan Lajovic |
-105 |
-120 |
3% |
Rome |
Lorenzo Sonego |
-115 |
120 |
-8% |
Clay |