ATP Mens Tennis Betting Model Find Your Edge May 9, 2024

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I will post my models for upcoming Tennis matchups as often as possible. Be on the lookout during the day because there may be multiple tournaments worldwide.

Reading the model is very simple. I have the line posted at one of the sportsbooks. I will post which book the lines were taken from each day. I will then show what my model thinks the line should be. The last column is the most important. That is the edge I see based on the difference in my line and the bettable line. 

The natural reaction would be to be all lines with an edge. I tend to be slightly conservative and look for a 5% edge or greater to make a wager. With tennis (and soccer) I tend to be a bit leery of very large edges. 15-20% or more can mean there is something the model is not picking up, perhaps an injury or some pretty sharp bettors pushing the line to the side we are showing as a high negative edge. This could be a good fade opportunity. That is, betting against the player we show to have an edge.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often. 

I sometimes like to bet those on the spread line on matches where we see an edge, but the line is very high. Preferably sets, but you may also look at the game spread line. This is because there is a high likelihood that the big dog will win the match, but there may be value in betting on the spread. You can split the bet up and do both as well.

Today's lines are taken from Draftkings.

Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Rinky Hijikata 550 560 0% Rome
Jaume Munar -800 -560 -4% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Thiago Seyboth Wild -255 -231 -2% Rome
Gregoire Barrere 205 231 -3% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Dominik Koepfer -145 -158 2% Rome
Andrea Vavassori 120 158 -7% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Alexei Popyrin -120 -137 3% Rome
Hamad Medjedovic 100 137 -8% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Stefano Napolitano -235 -136 -12% Rome
J J Wolf 190 136 8% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Zizou Bergs 500 385 4% Rome
Rafael Nadal -650 -385 -7% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Emil Ruusuvuori -150 -120 -5% Rome
Marcos Giron 125 120 1% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Alexandre Muller 170 293 -12% Rome
Marton Fucsovics -205 -293 7% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Nicolas Moreno De Alboran 140 196 -8% Rome
Botic Van De Zandschulp -170 -196 3% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Roberto Carballes Baena -220 -125 -13% Rome
Christopher Oconnell 180 125 9% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Tomas Machac 150 151 0% Rome
Matteo Arnaldi -185 -151 -5% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Mackenzie Mcdonald 285 236 4% Rome
Aslan Karatsev -370 -236 -8% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Jack Draper -150 138 -18% Rome
Borna Coric 120 -138 12% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Daniel Altmaier -135 -112 -5% Rome
Luca Nardi 110 112 -1% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Jan Lennard Struff -380 -470 3% Rome
Pedro Cachin 295 470 -8% Clay
Players Actual Line Sharp App Line EDGE Tournament
Dusan Lajovic -105 -120 3% Rome
Lorenzo Sonego -115 120 -8% Clay