Sharp App: Sports Betting

Statsational Europa Confernce Soccer Model November 9, 2023

The Soccer Model Is Now For Pro Members Only!!!


The process of reading the model is straightforward. I obtain the line from one of the sportsbooks and disclose the source daily. Then, I present the model's estimation of the line. The most crucial aspect is the last column, which represents the edge I perceive based on the variance between my line and the bettable line.

Naturally, one might be inclined to bet on all lines with an edge. However, I adopt a slightly conservative approach and seek a 5% edge or higher before placing a wager. Regarding soccer (and tennis), I exercise caution with significant edges. A margin of 15-20% or more might indicate that the model is overlooking something, such as an injury or the influence of sharp bettors who have shifted the line in the opposite direction, resulting in a high negative edge. In such cases, it could be an opportunity to bet against the team that appears to have an edge—a strategy known as fading.

I encourage you to experiment with these lines and keep track of your observations. Determine if those teams with a substantial edge tend to lose frequently.

Occasionally, I favor placing bets on the spread line for matches where we identify an edge, but the line is set at a considerable value. The rationale behind this approach is that the underdog winning the match is highly unlikely, yet there might be value in betting on the spread. You can even divide your wager and place bets on both outcomes simultaneously.

Today's lines are taken from Draftkings

November 9

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Breidablik

0.62

1000

1209

-1%

Gent

2.29

-400

-361

-2%

Draw

550

611

-1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

HJK Helsinki

0.57

950

1275

-2%

Frankfurt

2.26

-350

-363

1%

Draw

500

598

-2%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Aston Villa

2.18

-275

-279

0%

Alkmaar

0.73

750

961

-2%

Draw

425

490

-2%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Nordsjaelland

2.06

-450

-254

-10%

Trnava

0.71

1100

876

2%

Draw

600

457

4%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Brugge

2.02

-310

-222

-7%

Lugano

0.76

800

757

1%

Draw

475

417

2%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Slovan Bratislava

0.73

290

626

-12%

Lille

1.85

-110

-191

13%

Draw

280

387

-6%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Legia

2.13

-220

-270

4%

Zrinjski Mostar

0.72

600

938

-5%

Draw

360

475

-4%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Razgrad

1.00

300

391

-5%

Fenerbahce

1.80

-125

-129

1%

Draw

320

331

-1%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Zorya

1.07

400

249

9%

M Tel Aviv

1.36

-145

134

-16%

Draw

290

250

3%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Ferencvaros

1.18

140

252

-13%

Genk

1.55

190

121

11%

Draw

260

281

-2%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Viktoria Plzen

1.43

125

122

1%

Dinamo Zagreb

1.03

225

282

-5%

Draw

250

247

0%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

FK Astana

2.01

-125

-219

13%

Ballkani

0.77

330

741

-11%

Draw

285

414

-7%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

PAOK

2.23

-300

-345

3%

Aberdeen

0.63

850

1277

-3%

Draw

450

557

-3%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Besiktas

1.63

125

110

3%

Bodoe Glimt

1.15

205

281

-7%

Draw

280

281

0%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Olimpija Ljubljana

1.70

-105

-137

7%

Klaksvik

0.86

280

449

-8%

Draw

275

317

-3%

Teams

Proj Score

Actual Line

Sharp App Line

EDGE

Cukaricki

0.54

1000

1431

-3%

Fiorentina

2.37

-425

-428

0%

Draw

550

706

-3%