Statsational EPL Model August 5-7

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John Alesia

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust we will be adding new sports and models into the app. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much info as we can via content and articles.

I will be posting my models for upcoming Soccer matchups as often as I can. Because of the manual work, I will try and stay in the big leagues. On slow days I will add in some of the smaller leagues around the world.

To read the model it is very simple. I have the line posted at one of the sportsbooks. I will post which book the lines were taken from each day. I will then show what my model thinks the line should be. The last column is the most important. That is the edge I see based on the difference in my line and the bettable line.

The natural reaction would be to be all lines with an edge. I tend to be a little conservative and look for a 5% edge or greater to make a wager. With soccer (and tennis) I tend to be a bit leery of very large edges. 15-20% or more can mean there is something the model is not picking up, perhaps an injury, or there are some pretty sharp bettors pushing the line to the side we are showing as a high negative edge. This could be a good fade opportunity. That is, betting against the team we show to have an edge.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a great edge losing often.

On matches where we see an edge, but the line is very high, I sometimes like to bet those on the spread line. The reason for this is there is a high unlikelihood the big dog wins the match but there may be value in betting them on the spread. You can split the bet up and do both as well.

Be on the lookout the night before for the model. I am seeing the lines move against us as we near the start of these games.

Today's lines are taken from Draftkings

Aug5-7