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Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps January 30, 2023

Anthony P
Anthony P
While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

We look for sharps to be much more active in the NHL and NBA since the MLB is almost over however this is not these are not sports that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games. The NBA sees much more action than the NHL.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

This article's format will change once we have multiple sports running every day and the focus will go back to looking at lines that moved the most overnight.

RECAP of yesterday's games: I hope everyone had a great weekend. On the 27th we went 1-1. Minnesota took care of business versus the Grizzlies but unfortunately, the Stars lost in OT to the Devils that were playing on b2b night.

It will be quiet in the NHL and things will go back to normal after the all-star break.

In the NBA we have a busy slate with a couple of games getting big moves. Before we dig into the games, let's chat a little Superbowl. The line movement was crazy last night. At the book, they opened the Chiefs at -1 at around 8 pm, and sharp money flooded on the Eagles moving the line all the way to -2.5. There was no buyback on the Chief however the line moved down a little and settled to -2.

The Warriors opened at -2.5 yesterday and moved to -4.5. Wiggins didn't play versus the Raptors but he's probable for tonight's games. I don't agree with the move and OKC is a strong model play. OKC has been mentioned in many of my articles as of late and it won't be any different today. First, the Warriors are on the road and we all know how bad they've been. Second, apart from that debacle against the Hawks, the Thunder are 10th in points allowed per 100 possession and second in the spread differential in the last 2 weeks. Lastly, the Thunder are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Sharps vs model in this one.

We have a massive drop in the total in Phoenix. I don't even know if this is still payable. We don't have any sharp interest at the book however global markets moved the total therefore it's safe to say that sharp money landed on the under in Phoenix. The total opened at 228 last night and was hit all night and morning and settled at 220.5. Despite missing key players, the Suns are 3rd in defense in the last 2 weeks while the Raptor's offense is 6th with 123.1 pts per game. Both teams are at the bottom of pace metrics with the 5th and 9th lowest amount of possessions per 48 minutes and we usually see the total go under with slow-paced teams. My model has this game at 222.

To recap: Golden State -4.5, Toronto under 220.5

Good luck today

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