Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps January 27, 2023

Anthony P
Anthony P
While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

We look for sharps to be much more active in the NHL and NBA since the MLB is almost over however this is not these are not sports that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games. The NBA sees much more action than the NHL.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

This article's format will change once we have multiple sports running every day and the focus will go back to looking at lines that moved the most overnight.

RECAP of yesterday's games: We skipped yesterday since I spent most of the morning shoveling 15 inches of snow. In the previous edition, we have the Magic at -6. That number was a push however the line did drop to -4.5 and I hope you guys got that number instead.

We have perfect-size slates in all active sports tonight and it makes it much easier to go thru the games.

In the NBA the Minnesota game is the only one that stands out. The Timberwolves are barely getting 30% of the tickets and handle however the line moved from +4.5 to +3. My model has this game at +2.5 therefore I can't really argue with the move. The Grizzlies are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last 5 games and 25th in spread differential. During this slump, Memphis's defense has been allowing 121 pts per game and that is way off their standards as they rank #1 in aDRTG rating with 109.1 pts against per game. I believe this is a good spot for the Grizzlies offense to dominate Minnesota's defense and also a good spot for Memphi's defense to get their shit together. I would lean on Memphis tonight but the smart money is on Minnesota.

Moving on with the NHL, the Dallas Stars just suffered back-to-back overtime losses to the Canes and Sabres and will want to get back on track tonight. They kinda get a break with the Devils on road b2b but this is not an easy game for them. The Devils are 8-2-2 in their last 12 and the offense is back to what it was early in the season scoring 4 GF/G. Dallas has been playing .500 hockey since the new year and their defense and goaltending as been winning them games however the offense cooled down to under 3 GF/G since the new year. New Jersey might have partied a little too hard the night before and it showed on the ice last night. Smart money jumped on the -125 opening line for the Stars and the line moved as high as -150. My model doesn't agree with the move and has this line closer to -120. We can expect a better effort from the Devils and Dallas will face Vanecek who is 20-5 with a GAA of 2.30 and SV% of .916.

To recap: Minnesota +3, Dallas -140

Good luck today

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