Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps January 18, 2024

Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.

The morning sharp report summarizes overnight developments and is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers. Daily updates keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.

To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.

Let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.


RECAP of yesterday's games: We cashed another play yesterday. This time we backed the Whale who had a 50k bet on the under in Portland. It got a little stressful at the end since the game looked like it was going in OT but we got saved by Simons with almost no time left on the clock.

In the world of sports betting, the past night and morning have seen intriguing movements in odds across NHL, NBA, and College Basketball games, offering a glimpse into the minds of sharp bettors and market trends.

Starting with the NHL's extensive 10-game slate, sharp interest has been relatively subdued. However, the Montreal Canadiens' game has garnered attention, particularly regarding the total, which remained at 6.5 despite expectations of a move to 7. The unusual aspect here is that 55% of the handle is on the under, despite both expected goalies having save percentages under .900 in their last 10 games, suggesting a high-scoring affair could be on the cards.

The New York Rangers' game saw significant action, with smart money boosting the Rangers from -110 to -130 at some books, although Pinnacle still offers value at -119. For more detailed insights on this matchup, a look at the NHL model article is recommended.

Shifting to the NBA, Betonline's opening line for the Toronto Raptors at -1.5 was quickly adjusted to align with other market makers who favored the Chicago Bulls at -1.5. Since then, the line has swayed to -3 for the Bulls and appears to be settling back to -2, with an evenly distributed handle at the book.

In other NBA action, the under has been a popular bet. In New York, the Knicks' total dropped from 238 to 235 following sharp interest. Similarly, in Minnesota, mega sharps have driven the total down from 219 to 214, with 60% of the handle backing the under, despite 55% of tickets being on the over.

In College Basketball, tonight's slate might lack the excitement of yesterday's games but still presents engaging matchups. Michigan hosting Illinois is a highlight, with Illinois opening at -2.5 and the line holding steady. Meanwhile, the most bet-on game is at Michigan State, where the line has been stable, fluctuating between -12 and -11.

California witnessed a significant 4-point swing, with the line moving from Washington -2 to California -2. Despite 54% of the handle still favoring Washington, the line movement suggests potential changes. It's noteworthy that Washington's loss of Kepnang isn't deemed a 4-point impact on the line.

Finally, Wisconsin Milwaukee caught the sharp bettors' attention, moving from +4.5 to +3, and then to +2. The handle distribution, with only 43% backing them, indicates sharp money involvement.

In summary, these shifts in odds across multiple sports reflect the dynamic and complex nature of sports betting. From the NHL's potential high-scoring games to the NBA's defensive battles and the strategic plays in college basketball, these movements offer valuable insights for bettors looking to find an edge in today's games.

Game of the day:

Today's standout game brings us to the vibrant city of Las Vegas, where an exciting clash is set to unfold between the New York Rangers and the Vegas Golden Knights. While my initial model favored Vegas, a closer examination of the matchup reveals reasons to lean towards the Rangers, a sentiment echoed by sharp bettors.

The potential value shift in this game is worth noting. Should the odds significantly tilt and the Rangers' line reach somewhere between -140 to -150, it could present an appealing opportunity to back Vegas. However, as things currently stand, especially with the Rangers at -119 on Pinnacle, it seems prudent to side with the sharp bettors who are favoring the Rangers.

This clash isn't just another regular-season game; it carries the weight of a potential Stanley Cup Final preview, with the Rangers holding the second spot in their conference and the Golden Knights not far behind in the fifth position in theirs. Fans and enthusiasts are in for what promises to be a must-watch NHL spectacle.

The Rangers, despite facing the challenge of an away game in a notoriously tough arena, are my pick for tonight's victors. Their journey to this game has been marked by resilience. After enduring a difficult four-game losing streak, they've managed to rebound with two consecutive wins, a testament to their mental toughness and ability to bounce back under pressure. This resurgence has been crucial in restoring their confidence, an essential ingredient for any team eyeing victory in such high-stakes matchups.

The depth and talent of the Rangers' roster cannot be overstated. They boast one of the most well-rounded teams in the league, equipped with all-star caliber players who can turn the game on its head at any moment. This depth gives them a significant advantage, especially in challenging environments like the one they'll face in Las Vegas.

On the other side, the Golden Knights, despite their strong home record and a series of recent wins, have shown signs of vulnerability. The loss of Jack Eichel is a major setback for Vegas. His absence leaves a void in their lineup, one that is hard to fill given his impact on the ice. Eichel's injury could limit the Golden Knights' ability to display their usually dominant gameplay, creating an opportunity for the Rangers to capitalize.

In conclusion, this game is poised to be a tightly contested battle, with both teams bringing their A-game. However, the scales seem to tip in favor of the Rangers. Their recent return to form, combined with the Golden Knights' injury woes, sets up the Rangers to potentially clinch a close, hard-fought victory on the road. Tonight, the bright lights of T-Mobile Arena will shine on what promises to be an enthralling chapter in the ongoing saga of the NHL season.

RECAP: NY Rangers -119

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