Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps December 7, 2023

Market Makers are pivotal figures in sports betting, shaping the market by setting initial lines. They employ a risk management strategy, starting with lower bet limits to assess early betting patterns and then increasing limits as the market adjusts.

The morning sharp report summarizes overnight developments and is a valuable resource for PRO subscribers. Daily updates keep you informed about changes, with the final update around 4-5 pm EST. Any later movements often result from square money before game time.

To bolster your decision-making, use my betting models alongside the sharp report. When sharp money and the models align, it's a strong indicator for making informed bets.

Let's delve into today's showdown between the market makers and the sharps.


RECAP of yesterday's games: In our last game Villanova came short and lost in OT by 1 point.

The NHL is bustling with activity today, featuring some key matchups. The Ottawa Senators, coming off a dominant performance against the elite New York Rangers, are set to take on another powerhouse, the Toronto Maple Leafs. Despite being the underdogs at home, the Senators have seen the odds shift in their favor, moving from +123 to +113. This movement indicates growing confidence in the Senators’ ability to challenge the Leafs.

Meanwhile, the Arizona Coyotes, who have been on a remarkable streak defeating top-tier teams, are up against the unexpectedly strong Philadelphia Flyers. Despite a fairly even split in the handle, the odds are leaning towards the Flyers, moving from +107 to -104. This shift suggests a rising belief in the Flyers' chances in this encounter.

NBA: Calm Before the Storm

In contrast to the NHL, the NBA is relatively quiet today. The Los Angeles Lakers and New Orleans Pelicans are playing their tournament game in Las Vegas. The betting line is slowly tilting in favor of the Lakers, shifting from -1 to -2, with a slight decrease in the total points.

Another game to watch is between the Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers, also in Vegas. While the line hasn’t seen much movement, the total points have edged up slightly from 254.5 to 255.5, hinting at expectations of a high-scoring affair.

College Basketball: Steady Lines, Shifting Totals

In college basketball, while the betting lines remain stable, there's notable movement in game totals. For Iowa State’s game, sharp bettors are favoring the under, with the total decreasing from 155.5 to 155, and even lower in some retail markets. Similarly, North Dakota State’s game saw a downward shift in its total, moving from 150 to 149, with certain shops opening at 152.

NFL: Upcoming Analysis

For NFL fans, stay tuned for an upcoming article where I’ll delve into the latest line movements and what they could mean for the upcoming games.

Our game of the day will be in the NBA between the Lakers and Pels. The sharps at the book took the Pels at +1.5 but I am not sold on it. My model has the line at -1.5 for the Lakers and there is no value to extract at the current moment.

In the eagerly awaited NBA Cup semifinals, the Western Conference takes center stage with the New Orleans Pelicans squaring off against the Los Angeles Lakers in Las Vegas. The Pelicans are riding high after a notable win against the Sacramento Kings, while the Lakers just squeezed past the Phoenix Suns in their recent outing. Historically, the Lakers have had the upper hand in this matchup.

Pelicans' Resilience and Performance

The Pelicans have shown remarkable resilience, particularly in their comeback against Sacramento. Currently standing second in the Southwest Division, their offense ranks 13th in the league with notable contributions from Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson. The team's field goal percentage is commendable, but their three-point shooting lags, which could be a factor in this high-stakes game.

Lakers' Close Call and Offensive Strength

The Lakers, currently leading their division, survived a nail-biter against the Suns. LeBron James continues to be the linchpin for the team, contributing significantly in their recent win. However, there are concerns about the team's dependency on James, especially considering his age. The Lakers' field goal percentage is strong, but they rank low in three-point shooting, which could be a crucial aspect of this matchup.

Betting Analysis: Pelicans vs. Lakers

The betting lines favor the Lakers slightly, reflecting their recent form and historical dominance over the Pelicans. Anthony Davis, in particular, has been impressive against his former team, averaging high points in recent matchups.

However, the Pelicans have their strengths. Their depth and ability to shut down key players were evident in their quarterfinal game. They've shown they can hinder star players, as seen with De’Aaron Fox's performance against them. The Pelicans' roster, including players like Jones, could be pivotal in disrupting the Lakers' rhythm.

The Verdict

While the Lakers are favorites and have a strong track record, the Pelicans' depth and defensive capabilities make them a compelling choice. The Pelicans' potential to disrupt key Lakers players, combined with their own offensive firepower, presents them as a viable option, especially with the points.

In conclusion, while the Lakers seem poised for a win, the Pelicans, with their ability to challenge and their depth, could very well turn the tables. Bettors might find value in backing the Pelicans in what promises to be a tightly contested and thrilling matchup. Let's side with the sharps tonight!

RECAP: Pelicans +1.5

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