Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps August 18, 2022
While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.
Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.
RECAP:Sharps and the model get it right again. Wasn't as easy after the rain delay however the Mets won.
We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.
For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.
Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.
Some interesting games on Thursdays. The Padres should demolish the Nats right? Atlanta still hasn't confirmed a starter. We still don't have a line in the Rays game. The Blue Jays start another important series versus the Yankees, while both teams have been struggling, this should be a great series. The Orioles are playing 1 game versus the Cubs who don't have much travel to do versus Baltimore. I pay more attention to traveling especially when the games are early. The Orioles will be a huge square play and I like the opposite team in these spots.
The sharp report has 3 games however none that our MLB betting model likes. We will wait till the morning and hopefully, we can break down a game. PITTSBURGH +169ARIZONA OVER 7.5 +105 BALTIMORE UNDER 9 -113The Pirates do show some value but I would prefer them on the road versus Eovaldi instead of them at home. Eovaldi seems to be allergic to playing at home this season and his home and away splits are flat-out stupid.UPDATE 1:10 PM
There is one play that stands now that the total dropped to 7 in San Francisco. The model has this game projected at 8.31, sharps at the book hit the over on the 7.5 however most books dropped the total at 7. For the books to be forced to drop the total it means that someone somewhere, usually a sharp or a group sharps slammed the under. However, at my book, the sharps are on the over.
The Dbacks are one of my VIP picks for the day. When looking at the past, Gallen hasn't had much success versus the Giants and losing all of his last 5 games in San Francisco. However, if we look at how he's been performing last 5 starts, the Dbacks have won all 5 games. Even if his ERA flirts close to 5 in San Francisco, he's been lights out in his last 5 starts. I doubt that all of a sudden he steps foot in San Francisco and he forgets to pitch. Adding to that, I prefer the Dbacks backs and bullpen when looking at the last 21 to 30 days.
Back to the total, I don't like the over. The Giants are 23rd in runs scored versus RHP and are been terrible in their last 20 games scoring under 2.31 runs per game. The way the Gallen is pitching (3 ERs in his last 31 innings pitched) the Giants will be in for a long night. Webb has been solid also making this a pitchers game where both pitchers can stay in the game over 6 innings and the scoring should be low.
Good luck today
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