Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps August 17, 2022
While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.
Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.
RECAP: Our featured game is the Marlins under 7.5 and it's currently 3-0 in the top on the 5th. I will update the recap in the morning.
We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.
For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.
Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.
The sharps and the model are aligned with the Mets at -105. Don't look for that line it's not available anymore. Points Bet WV and a sharp book opened the line between -105 and -110 and when Betonline and 5dimes opened their lines they automatically adjusted in the -130 ranges.
The Mets have a huge advantage at pitching. Max has been unbelieve last 2-3 starts keeping an ERA of under 1, In his last 2 starts versus the Braves he struck out 20 in 14 innings and allowed 1ER. On the road, lefties or righties hit under .220 versus Max. August has been one of his best months (20+ IP) with an ERA of 1.31, he's allowed only 1 HR and walked 2 runners.
The Braves are coming in hot winning 7 straight and embarrassing Carrasco and the Mets last night beating them 13-1. Atlanta's last 2 losses were on the 6 and 7 of August versus Scherzer and DeGrom. The Mets are still hot and we can count on the bats to do the job versus an Odorizzi who's been unimpressive last 2 starts throwing close to over 90 pitches in both games and not even going over 4 innings.
Good luck today
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