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Overnight Grind : Market Makers VS Sharps August 1, 2022

Anthony P
Anthony P
While most of us are sleeping, Market Makers and Sharps are adjusting the markets so that by the time we wake up and are ready to bet, the markets have adjusted in favour of the sportsbook. Let's take a quick look at some games where the sportsbooks had to make some adjustments based on heavy sharp interest.

Market Makers are sportsbooks that are the first to post a line and set the market. They will control risk by lowering their bet limits when posting a spread or Moneyline before everyone else. Once the market adjusted, they max their bet limits. Talbot has been hot and won his last 8 starts but don't discount Jarry he's been solid this year.

RECAP: The sharps and model did it again. I didn't like the over but it wasn't even close. 12 runs in all.

We look for sharps to be much more active in MLB now that the NHL and NBA seasons are over however this is not the sport that sharps are the most excited about since market makers tend to have very low max limits early on most of the games due to many variables in MLB. Weather is one of them and probably the most important.

For VIPs, your best start would be to look at the morning sharp report, which will give you an excellent summary of what happened overnight. In the afternoon, the sharp report updates and games might be added or removed based on what happened in the morning. The last update is around 4-5 pm EST and not much movement is expected after that. If there is movement, it will usually be square money loading up on games before they start.

Another tool that can be used with the sharp report is the MLB model on our website. Comparing the sharp money with our projection can help you make your own picks if both the model and sharp agree.

For Monday, the sharps jumped on the Mets and the under in Texas. My betting model doesn't like any of those games. We will have to wait overnight or in the morning to hopefully find a game of two. In the meantime, here is the MLB betting model for Monday, August 1st:


It's a small slate and even overnight there wasn't much traction. The under in Texas stuck and there was no sharp money coming in on the over. Kansas City, Colorado and Cleveland received some sharp interest in the +151, +186 and -146 levels.

On the MLB model, the Rockies show a +5% EV while there is no value on the Guardians.

I am not a fan of the Rockies on the road however based on their play this season they have carried some good value on the road. The Rockies have had great success versus the Padres however they are 6-13 in the last 19 games in San Diego. Based on the pitching matchup I agree with the value. The Padres shouldn't be a -190 favourite with Clevinger on the mount, with Darvish yes, but not Clevinger. Colorado has been hitting RHP at a clip of .292 last 5 games. Not sure I would take the Rockies on the ML but I would agree on a RL play at +1.5.

Good luck today

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