New York Giants @ Tennessee Titans Matchup Preview - September 11th, 2022

Editor

Sunday the New York Giants (0-0) will battle the Tennessee Titans (0-0). Oddsmakers peg the Titans as the big favorite with an implied win probablity of 68%, leaving the Giants with a 32% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Titans -5.5 with a Game Total of 43.5.

New York's biggest weakness has been their offense, ranking #32 in the league with a mere 273 yards per game. They've failed so much on offense in large part because of their passing attack, which checks in at #3-worst in football with 203 yards per game. And when a defense doesn't have to worry about the pass, they can key in on the run, which has led to just 3.54 yards per carry for the Giants -- bottom 10 in the league. It's tough to succeed when you don't have much time to throw, as has been the case for New York. Their offensive line has ranked just #31 in pass protection. In terms of their defense, the Giants have ranked #25 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 235 yards per game through the air against them (#17 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #25 with 4.69 yards per carry. New York has been most effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to 6.59 yards per target (#7-best). New York has been least effective in shutting down opposing running backs, giving up a 86.1% completion rate (#5-highest).

Tennessee's primary advantage has been their run defense, which has allowed a scant 4 yards per attempt on the ground -- #3-best in the NFL. Tennessee gets full marks because they haven't even sold out to stop the run the way many teams do. They've played with the standard seven men in the box 10.1% of the time this year. While many teams bring an extra defender up near the line of scrimmage to stop the run, the Titans have employed this tactic the #4-least in football. This Titans run defense has been aided by their safeties, who grade out as the #5-best unit in the NFL. When it comes to their offense, the Titans check in at #14 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 237 yards per game (#17 in football). Their run game has ranked #17 with 4.29 yards per attempt on the ground.

New York Giants Insights

  • THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace out of all the games this week, averaging 27.51 seconds per play accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

  • Sterling Shepard has been among the leading WRs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 5.3 receptions per game while checking in at the 91st percentile.

  • The New York Giants pass defense has performed very well when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.63 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 2nd-least in the NFL.

Tennessee Titans Insights

  • The Tennessee Titans offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

  • Austin Hooper has posted a whopping 21.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 75th percentile among tight ends.

  • The Tennessee Titans have utilized play action on 30.3% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Betting Trends

  • The Tennessee Titans have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.90 Units / 57% ROI)

  • The New York Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.50 Units / 35% ROI)

  • Anthony Firkser has hit the Receptions Under in his last 7 games (+7.20 Units / 72% ROI)