Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Matchup Preview - October 2nd, 2022

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The Kansas City Chiefs come in as 2.0 point road underdog as they travel to Raymond James Stadium to play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It was quite the blowout the last time these two teams played. The Buccaneers won by double digits at home, outscoring the Chiefs 31-9 in Week 21 of 2020.

Kansas City's biggest strength has been their offense, ranking #1 in the league with 450 yards per game. They've achieved offensive success largely through the quality of their passing attack, which is #1-best in football with 364 yards per game. It's no wonder they've done so well through the air when their offensive line ranks #2 in the league in pass protection. It's also worth noting that opposing defenses have stacked the box a whopping 9.3% of the time against the Chiefs in an attempt to stop the run game. But because passing is so much more important for an offensive to run effectively, this has opened up opportunities for Kansas City's offense to succeed through the air. In terms of their defense, the Chiefs have ranked #23 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 261 yards per game through the air against them (#29 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #20 with 4.64 yards per carry. Positionally, perhaps their best defensive asset has been their cornerbacks, which rank #8 in the league in locking down route-runners. Kansas City has been least effective in shutting down opposing running backs, giving up 49 yards per game (#2-worst).

Tampa Bay's primary advantage has been their offense, which ranks #2 in the NFL at 431 yards per game. The quality of their passing attack has led to much of their success. The Buccaneers 340 yards per game through the air ranks #2-best in football this year. It's easy to see why they've done so well through the air when you notice the quality of their offensive line, which ranks #10 in the league in pass protection. When it comes to their defense, the Buccaneers check in at #7 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 235 yards per game against Tampa Bay this year (#15 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #7 against them with 4.25 yards per ground attempt. This Buccaneers defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, keeping them in check at just 5.91 yards per target (#1-best in the league). Tampa Bay's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, who have caught 77.7% of their passes (#3-highest in the league).

Kansas City Chiefs Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Patrick Mahomes to be much more involved in his team's rushing attack this week (15.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (2.1% in games he has played).

  • Travis Kelce has put up a whopping 65.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 97th percentile among TEs.

  • The Kansas City Chiefs defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 8.54 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-most in the NFL.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects this game to have the 5th-most plays run among all games this week at 133.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season with their run defense.

  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone no-huddle on 12.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-most in the league). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.

Betting Trends

  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.40 Units / 24% ROI)

  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games (+3.95 Units / 11% ROI)

  • Patrick Mahomes has hit the Passing Yards Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.70 Units / 27% ROI)