Jacksonville Jaguars vs Philadelphia Eagles Matchup Preview - October 2nd, 2022

Editor

Sunday the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1) will battle the Philadelphia Eagles (3-0). Oddsmakers peg the Eagles as the huge favorite with an implied win probablity of 71%, leaving the Jaguars with a 29% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Eagles -6.5 with a Game Total of 44.0.

Jacksonville Jaguars Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Trevor Lawrence to be a more important option in his team's rushing attack this week (14.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (5.8% in games he has played).

  • Jamycal Hasty has accrued a whopping 6.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 95th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

  • The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has excelled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.72 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 10th-least in the NFL.

Philadelphia Eagles Insights

  • The weatherman calls for rain in this game... which usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

  • The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks rank as the best CB corps in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

  • The Philadelphia Eagles have used play action on 33.8% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (3rd-most in football), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Betting Trends

  • The Philadelphia Eagles have scored last in 12 of their last 18 games (+4.30 Units / 19% ROI)

  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.85 Units / 56% ROI)

  • Christian Kirk has hit the Receptions Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.50 Units / 41% ROI)