Mitch's NCAAF Bet of the Day | October 28, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop. I’ll explain my reasoning below, and even add in a couple of other picks I also like for today. 

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OVERALL RECORD: 25-21-1, +3.78u
RECAP: We’re coasting through this season, as we’ve had some really good days, and some really bad ones, too. I’ve stayed away from college football this week to focus on the NBA, but it’s a Saturday… how can we not bet on some NCAAF? I love today’s pick, and I have five other picks in our PRO Discord channels.

PICK: USC -10 vs. California
I’ve ventured to the Pac-12 often this season, and this game is no different, with the struggling USC Trojans taking on the surprising state school of California. It’s definitely a matchup between two teams that have had their ups and downs this season: USC is 2-6 against the spread, and Cal is 2-5 against the spread. Yikes! Someone’s gotta win here, so let’s dive into why it’ll be USC.

Caleb Williams needs to be the first words out of your mouth when you’re talking about USC, for better or for worse; he’s one of the most highly touted prospects in NCAAF history, and he’s pretty much surefire going to be the number one pick in this year’s NFL draft. Our Sharp AI loves the Trojans today, with our AI handling this game around an 11-point spread, instead of the ten we’re laying. Last season, Cal kept it close, losing by seven in that game that the Trojans came out on top - but both of these teams were much worse. It’s surprising how formidable Cal has been on offense, but let’s talk about this USC offense, first.

They’re a top-ten offense in the league by most measures, and Cal simply cannot get to the quarterback this season, as they’re one of the worst defenses in sacks in all of college football. This Cal defense is 111th in the nation in scoring, while USC is literally third; and on the road, USC is winning by an average of ten points per game against teams similar to Cal. 

This USC defense will probably give up about thirty today, considering that Cal usually scores about 30 at home this season, and this USC defense gives up about 30 on the road so far. But this team puts up at least 45 points per game on the road this season, and this Cal defense has been porous at home. 

Caleb Williams has struggled over his past few games, but our Sharp Projections see him as a true star; and there simply might be a million points scored in this game. In a shootout, I trust Caleb Williams. USC -10 is the play.

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