Mitch's NCAAF Bet of the Day | October 21, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop. I’ll explain my reasoning below, and even add in a couple of other picks I also like for today. 

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PICK: Nevada/San Diego State o47.5
This article is coming out late, I know - but I just had to get something free out for the people, especially because there is some crazy movement in this game, as far as the total is concerned. 

When the total opened, it began at O/U 45 - and early bettors got to cash in on that crazy movement, as it rose all the way to O/U49.5, with significant money coming in on the over initially. Now that the dust has settled, the line crept down throughout the week back down to 47.5, a much more manageable number. 

And, if we consider the money handles, via the Money Handles tracker that Sharp App Pro subscribers have access to, the water gets even more clear. On this game, there are only 44% of the total bets placed on the over, which means that most of the public bettors are on the under. This is important, because nearly 80% of the handle is on the over in this game - and especially at the number of 48, there’s clear reasons to take this line. 

Why not? If we look at these two teams’ defenses, they are putrid, and San Diego State has the capabilities to put up a lot of points on this porous Nevada defense, who is last in the Mountain West, and has yet to win a game this season. Nevada’s defense ranks near dead last in all of NCAAF in total yards, nearly last in yards per play, and nearly last in rushing yards allowed. 

San Diego State is by no means an offensive powerhouse, but they do have a rushing offense that can hang with the league average. They currently run the ball about 36 times per game, compared to their average 27 passing plays per game. This is a rushing offense that relies on touches on the ground, and this Nevada front seven can’t hang with this offensive line. 

Finally, for all we’ve talked about San Diego State’s offense, their defense is again, one of the worst in the entire league. Once again, this is a matchup nightmare for the under; Nevada has a competent passing game, ranking 99th in the league in passing yards and 63rd in total passing plays, meaning they pass the ball… a LOT. And this passing defense is one of the worst in the league, ranking 122nd in the league in passing yards allowed; once again, this is a porous defense. 

The line movement, the money handles, and the defensive liabilities of both of these teams makes for a game where the over is paramount. Let’s take it, and ride it all the way to the bank.

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