Mitch's NCAAF Bet of the Day | October 13, 2023

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop. I’ll explain my reasoning below, and even add in a couple of other picks I also like for today. 

If you have any questions, hit me up in the Discord, linked below, and be sure to add a PRO SUBSCRIPTION to your daily routine to maximize your best bets, no matter the sport. 

OVERALL RECORD: 19-13-1, +6.04u
RECAP: Once again, it’s been a minute since I wrote an NCAAF article, but we’re up six units on the year alone on the sport - including last week’s heater, where I won all three picks last Saturday, and I won my Liberty pick as well earlier this week. We’re on a four-game pick streak in the NCAAF, and today will hopefully continue that trend.

October 13, 2023

PICK: Memphis +5
It’s Friday the 13th and things are looking spooky out there on the NCAAF landscape, as we have an awesome weekend ahead of us. Before we get there, we have three games tonight, headlined by Colorado & Stanford squaring off; and while there’s a little bit of value in that game (PRO Members get that pick), I actually love Memphis at home tonight against the Green Wave. Let’s talk about it. 

While Memphis is 4-1, they’ve been pretty bad against the spread this season, going 1-3-1 during that stretch. But tonight, we’re getting a five-point cushion with a high-powered offense that can hang with anyone in college football, and we’re laying down a pick on them. 

Memphis is undefeated at home, and has a top-30 passing offense in the league. Running back Blake Watson has been on a tear this season and quarterback Seth Henigan is proving everyone wrong, as he’s thrown for nearly 1,400 yards already this season - but he needs to get the turnovers down. 

But the calling card here is Tulane’s rushing defense, which is top-30 in the league; that’s why we pass the ball. They give up the 88th-best yards per game to opposing QB’s (that’s not great) and are nearly dead last in completion percentage allowed. 

The case is the opposite when we switch sides, as the Green Wave can run the ball well, and the Memphis defense can’t necessarily stop it. They’re allowing 152 yards on the ground per game, but they just don’t score a lot; Memphis is averaging 36 points per game, while Tulane has barely been able to muster up 30. And while their defense has been shaky, Memphis still holds you to as few points as possible; their defense is ranked 43rd in the nation in points allowed. 

All signs here point to Memphis winning outright, but I’ll take the points on this one, as I see this game much closer to a pick-em than a near-touchdown deficit. Roll with Memphis tonight.

Join the conversation for free in our Discord server or sign up to get PRO ACCESS using the following link: Mitch S

Join Discord and ask @MitchS any questions you have on other games!