NBA Bet of the Day | March 6, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 177-118-3, +45.52
RECAP: All of a sudden, we’re on the biggest heater of the season, reaching the most units we’ve gained this season, hitting over 45 units this season. Houston was a lock ever since halftime hit, and we went 3-0 on our PRO plays, including two totals and the Detroit Pistons sticking it to the Timberwolves (while still losing, good work!). It was a phenomenal day in the NBA streets, and let’s make it happen today, too. 

March 6th, 2024

Talk about a butt-whooping – the last time the Golden State Warriors took the court, they got absolutely stomped in Boston, and now they face the second-best team in the East in the Milwaukee Bucks tonight on Warrior Ground. 

The Bucks have been an absolutely transformed team since the All-Star Break, obliterating opponents with their defense as of late. They haven’t hit an over in ten straight games, and it’s going to continue tonight as they head on the road to one of the toughest places to play in the league.

The Money Handles tool is our biggest supporter here, because some of the trends don’t necessarily align with what we’re playing in this game. The total originally started at 226.5, and has ballooned to 228 throughout the day; so, while we don’t necessarily have line movement, we do have public money looking at this matchup and screaming over. But that’s not where the money is in this game. We’re seeing only 31% of all of the total bets on the under in this game, while 66% of the money on this game is on the under. That’s a pretty big difference of 35%, and I anticipate the line sticking right here throughout the evening before game time. 

Our Sharp AI has this game pegged at 227.5, which is right where we’re seeing; but the Bucks have been an unders juggernaut. As the away team, they hit the under in 62% of games, and 100% of their away games over their last ten. They also tend to hit the under in non-conference games, games after a win, and games with one day off - all of which we’re finding ourselves in currently. 

We’re projecting the Bucks to score around 115 this game, as over their last five, they’ve scored 115.8 points per game, and the Warriors have allowed 115 on the dot, which is inflated by the Celtics game. The Bucks are currently allowing only 97 points per game on defense since the All-Star Break, which is absolutely nuts. 

I think it’s possible for Golden State to want revenge – and Giannis is probably playing, so the number is going to stick where it is. But this defense for Milwaukee is ravaging, and I expect them to set the tempo tonight. Unders, my friends! 

PICK: Milwaukee / Golden State under 228

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