NBA Bet of the Day | March 15, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 186-124-3, +47.67u
RECAP: We had a losing day yesterday, losing our NBA of the Day and one more play, while cashing the Houston play. The weird part about yesterday is that neither of the three plays were a sweat whatsoever – both losers were losers by a long shot, and our winner was never in doubt. It brings us down about a unit, but we’re still feeling really good going into tonight’s slate. 

March 15th, 2024

These Denver Nuggets are ready to rock and roll for the Playoffs, as they’re gearing up for another unreal postseason run, and tonight is highlighted by a matchup where this playoff team is taking on the San Antonio Spurs and the big man himself, Wembanyama. 

This pick is highlighted by the Money Handles tool within the Sharp App, where we’re seeing a significant difference between the betting percentage and the money percentage. The betting percentage is sitting right on that teeter-totter of a line that we look at, at 40% of the bets on this game between all of the major sports books. The money percentage is where we’re avoiding a square play, at a whopping 83% of the money. That’s a crazy good percentage, and it’s a difference of 43% - right at our sweet spot. 

While they haven’t been performing well this season as an away favorite, they’ve been very good as of late. They’ve blown teams out by 12, 6, 21, 6, 10, 21, 16, and 15 over their last 8 wins – including a fluke loss to the Toronto Raptors. They’ve covered in 7 of their last 10 games, and they’ve been on a tear against bad teams. Over their last five games, they rank second in offensive efficiency and seventh in points scored on offense, while this San Antonio defense is absolutely horrible at defending in the second halves of games – they rank 30th and 26th in defense in the third and fourth quarter. If this play doesn’t look good early on, have no fear - they’ll pull away in the second half. 

Finally, Denver’s defense has been really good over their last five, only allowing 110 points per game - while the Spurs only score 111, so we’re going to be around that range for today’s game. The most surprising part about Denver’s defense though is their dominance on the road as of late - they rank fourth in the league in defense on the road this season. They’re stout. 

Let’s take the Nuggets by eleven, as they’ve been so solid on the road as of late, and they’ve been covering machines. Denver’s looking great at the right time. 

PICK: Denver Nuggets -10.5

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