Follow the Trends: NBA Edition (1/28/23)

Hey y’all, I’m Mitch! I’m from Chicago, so I’m a homer for all things Chi-Town: Cubs, Blackhawks, Bulls, Bears, and love college hoops around the area. Let’s dive in! 

In this column, I’ll go through the biggest trends I’m noticing throughout the NBA during this past week – these will include betting tips, strength of schedule updates, and player props that I’ve been keeping my eye on. 

Use these at your discretion; after all, the NBA is a league where teams, as well as players, fluctuate throughout the year. 

FTT 1/24/23 RECAP: The NBA has been NUTS this past week, with so many trends being thrown out the window. Some of my best plays hit, though: The TOTD luck had to end at some point, as the depleted Wizards beat both the Rockets and Mavs this week handily. KCP went Over on his steals in the one game he played, the Lakers Unders split, Reggie Jackson was HOT scoring the ball this week, and Thunder Unders (wow, that’s fun to say!) went even. Let’s keep this hot streak alive and well - and I’m feeling really good about my picks this week.

Here’s what I’ve been noticing over the past seven days: 

TREND OF THE DAY: The NBA has had a down week this week, with no team playing more than three games over the past seven days. The Los Angeles Clippers are on a ton of rest and riding a four game win streak. Over their win streak, they’ve blown out the Spurs, Mavericks, and Lakers - and they begin a road trip against Atlanta, Cleveland, and Chicago this week. The Clippers are the 7th best team in the league on the road - and these are beatable teams. I’d imagine the lines might be close for all three games (for example, it’s hovering around a pick-em tonight in Atlanta), so let’s take the LA Clippers, who are finally hitting their stride, ATS all week long against some questionable teams, including tonight against Atlanta.

Other Trends:

1. Obviously, PG Damian Lillard has been scoring in bunches over the past month, consistently putting up the best pure shooting numbers in the league. Surprisingly enough though, over the past four games, he’s hit the OVER in Assists as well - averaging 10 assists during his hot scoring stretch. I’d expect the books to raise his scoring numbers (obviously), but keep his Assist numbers around the same - the offense still runs through him in Portland. Let’s cash in on the Over Assists Prop with the league's best scorer.

2. The Detroit Pistons have had some bright spots this year, and while they continue to lose, their young talent is blossoming before their eyes. One of these players they’re trying to mold is PG Killian Hayes, who is averaging 10 PPG. Although he’s had an average season, he’s been incredibly inconsistent as of late - he’s put up 16, 4, and 9 this week. The Consensus Points Prop is hovering around 12.5, and he’s only topped that once recently. Former Purdue frontman Jaden Ivey is getting over 30 min/game nowadays, and Hayes might see a decline in his minutes and scoring. Let’s take the UNDER on Hayes scoring this week. 

3. The Memphis Grizzlies are one of the best teams in the league when their offense and defense are fully clicking - and I don’t know why, but they haven’t been able to click in a long, long time. They’re 1-5 ATS over their past six, and they haven’t been able to cover big numbers against bad teams. For the year, they’re 23-23-2 ATS - and with some tight games expected coming up this week, and some surprising teams on their schedule coming up, I don’t see them righting the ship ATS this week, where they’ll probably be favored big in a few games. 

4. The Cleveland Cavaliers might have the best defense in the league, and they’ve been showing it recently - holding good teams like Milwaukee, New York, and Golden State under 120 points. Last night, the Under hit as well. The Total Points UNDER has been 4-0 this week, while being set at relatively low numbers (218, 217, 221) - let’s ride this defense, and the Total Points Under, to win some money. 

5. Finally, the Chicago Bulls (my hometown team) have handed their keys to SG Zach Lavine, who has quietly had a 24/4/4 season to date. While inconsistent scoring as of late, he’s been above-average in rebounding the ball - over his last ten games, he’s averaging almost 6 REB/game and he’s gotten over six twice in his last three. He’s seeing the ball well, and while the Consensus Rebounds Prop stays around 4.5, expect Lavine to continue to get boards for the Bulls.

RECAP:
TOTD: LA Clippers ATS
Lillard Assists OVER
Hayes Points UNDER
FADE Memphis ATS
Cleveland Total UNDER
Lavine Rebounds OVER

These are what I'll be following, but as always, let me know what you think in our Discord!

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