Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays Matchup Preview - October 7th, 2022


Seattle Mariners Insights

  • Luis Castillo is an extreme groundball pitcher (50.1% GB% according to The Sharp Model projections), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Rogers Centre — the #6 HR venue in the league — today.

  • J.P. Crawford has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 85.3-mph average to last year's 87.3-mph EV.

  • The Seattle Mariners bullpen projects as the 4th-best in the league, via The Sharp Model.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

  • Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Alek Manoah has gone to his fastball a lot this year, though: 61.8% of the time, ranking in the 96th percentile.

  • Extreme groundball bats like Jackie Bradley Jr. tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Luis Castillo.

  • Bo Bichette has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.2%) and will be challenged by the game's 8th-deepest RF fences today.

Betting Trends

  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 47 games (+10.05 Units / 14% ROI)

  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 59 away games (+12.10 Units / 18% ROI)

  • Bo Bichette has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+10.15 Units / 30% ROI)