Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels Matchup Preview - September 19th, 2022


The Mariners are scheduled to start Logan Gilbert (12-6, 3.19 ERA) against Angels starting pitcher Jose Suarez (6-7, 3.84 ERA) on Monday. Logan Gilbert suffered a loss in his last outing, as the Mariners lost to the Padres 0-2. He pitched 5 innings allowing 1 earned run with 4 hits. He also recorded 5 strikeouts with 3 walks. The last time Jose Suarez took the mound, he recorded a loss as the Angels got beat by the Guardians 1-3. He finished with 5.1 IP, 3 K, 0 BB, while allowing 3 earned runs on 9 hits. Today, Gilbert projects for 5.60 innings pitched with 2.9 ER, 5.6 hits, 6.0 strikeouts, and 1.5 walks, according to THE BAT. Meanwhile, THE BAT projects Suarez's average outcome to be 5.79 IP, 2.6 ER, 5.4 H, 5.1 strikeouts, and 1.7 walks.

Seattle Mariners Insights

  • Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Logan Gilbert has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches 6.1% more often this season (44.6%) than he did last season (38.5%).

  • Curt Casali is an extreme flyball batter and faces the weak outfield defense of Los Angeles (#3-worst of all teams on the slate).

  • Carlos Santana has a high pull rate on his flyballs (37.9% — 97th percentile) and will be challenged by the game's 10th-deepest LF fences today.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

  • The Los Angeles Angels outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst of all teams on the slate today.

  • Mickey Moniak has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 5% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the last 14 days.

  • Projected catcher Max Stassi projects as an elite pitch framer, according to THE BAT projection system.

Betting Trends

  • The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 22 of their last 37 games at home (+9.75 Units / 24% ROI)

  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 11 of their last 19 away games (+4.65 Units / 22% ROI)

  • Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in 40 of his last 52 away games (+20.50 Units / 24% ROI)