San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Matchup Preview - October 21st, 2022
Editor
The San Diego Padres will faceoff in a day game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. The Padres offense will be led by Manny Machado, who ranks as the #2nd-best hitter in baseball according to The Sharp Model X. Given Manny Machado's profile and today's matchup specifics, The Sharp Model X expects him to average a .354 wOBA, .253 AVG, and .13 HRs. On the other side, Kyle Schwarber (The Sharp Model X's #5th hitter in MLB) will bolster the Phillies lineup. He projects for a .362 wOBA, .258 AVG, and .17 HRs.
San Diego Padres Insights
Joe Musgrove has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 6.6 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.
The Philadelphia Phillies don't have any same-handed RPs in their bullpen, so Trent Grisham is guaranteed to never lose the platoon advantage against the bullpen the entire game.
The San Diego Padres bullpen projects as the 9th-best in the game, according to The Sharp Model.
Philadelphia Phillies Insights
It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Ranger Suarez has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches 11% more often this year (42%) than he did last season (31%).
Rhys Hoskins is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of San Diego (#3-best of all teams on the slate today).
Rhys Hoskins has a high pull rate on his flyballs (35.9% — 93rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.
Betting Trends
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 37 of their last 57 games at home (+16.20 Units / 26% ROI)
The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 34 games (+9.45 Units / 23% ROI)
Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 22 of his last 31 games (+12.70 Units / 33% ROI)
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