San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Matchup Preview - October 21st, 2022


The San Diego Padres will faceoff in a day game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. The Padres offense will be led by Manny Machado, who ranks as the #2nd-best hitter in baseball according to The Sharp Model X. Given Manny Machado's profile and today's matchup specifics, The Sharp Model X expects him to average a .354 wOBA, .253 AVG, and .13 HRs. On the other side, Kyle Schwarber (The Sharp Model X's #5th hitter in MLB) will bolster the Phillies lineup. He projects for a .362 wOBA, .258 AVG, and .17 HRs.

San Diego Padres Insights

  • Joe Musgrove has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 6.6 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.

  • The Philadelphia Phillies don't have any same-handed RPs in their bullpen, so Trent Grisham is guaranteed to never lose the platoon advantage against the bullpen the entire game.

  • The San Diego Padres bullpen projects as the 9th-best in the game, according to The Sharp Model.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

  • It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Ranger Suarez has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches 11% more often this year (42%) than he did last season (31%).

  • Rhys Hoskins is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of San Diego (#3-best of all teams on the slate today).

  • Rhys Hoskins has a high pull rate on his flyballs (35.9% — 93rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

Betting Trends

  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 37 of their last 57 games at home (+16.20 Units / 26% ROI)

  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 34 games (+9.45 Units / 23% ROI)

  • Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 22 of his last 31 games (+12.70 Units / 33% ROI)