Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Matchup Preview - October 12th, 2022


Right-hander Zack Wheeler is expected to start today for Philadelphia, while right-hander Kyle Wright gets the nod at home for Atlanta. Wheeler enters this contest with a 2.82 ERA, backed up by a 2.89 FIP (which is a better measure of the things a pitcher can control). Wright, meanwhile, has a 3.58 FIP underlying his 3.19 ERA. The last time Zack Wheeler was on the bump, the Phillies beat the Cardinals 6-3. He left allowing 0 earned runs and recording 4 strikeouts with 1 walk. Wright's last start was against the Mets, when he recorded the win as the Braves were victorious 4-2. Over 5 innings pitched, he allowed 2 earned runs with 7 hits. He also recorded 3 strikeouts with 1 walk.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

  • Zack Wheeler has averaged 17.7 outs per start this year, checking in at the 85th percentile.

  • Rhys Hoskins has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 17% rate last year has dropped to 11.7% this year.

  • Jean Segura hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 5th-shallowest CF fences today.

Atlanta Braves Insights

  • Kyle Wright has been lucky with his strikeouts this year, notching an 8.68 K/9 despite The Sharp Model estimating his true talent level to be 8.11 — a 0.57 K/9 difference.

  • The Philadelphia Phillies don't have any same-handed relief pitchers in their bullpen, so Eddie Rosario is guaranteed to never face a bullpen mismatch the whole game.

  • Projected catcher Travis d'Arnaud projects as a good pitch framer, via The Sharp Model projection system.

Betting Trends

  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 78 of their last 114 games (+21.90 Units / 10% ROI)

  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 54 away games (+21.28 Units / 35% ROI)

  • Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 17 away games (+8.60 Units / 33% ROI)