Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Matchup Preview - October 11th, 2022

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Ranger Suarez has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches 11% more often this year (42%) than he did last year (31%).

• J.T. Realmuto has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 91.9-mph average to last season's 94.8-mph figure.

• Projected catcher J.T. Realmuto projects as an elite pitch framer, via The Sharp Model projection system.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Max Fried's 2136 rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 16th percentile among SPs.

• Robbie Grossman is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of Philadelphia (#1-worst of all teams on the slate today).

• The Atlanta Braves bullpen projects as the 2nd-best in MLB, according to The Sharp Model.

Betting Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 92 of their last 150 games (+23.47 Units / 12% ROI)

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 60 of their last 99 games (+17.78 Units / 16% ROI)

• Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 33 games at home (+8.45 Units / 22% ROI)