New York Yankees @ St. Louis Cardinals Matchup Preview - August 5th, 2022


Friday evening the New York Yankees battle against the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium. The Yankees offense will be led by Aaron Judge, who ranks as the #2nd-best hitter in baseball according to THE BAT X. Given Aaron Judge's profile and today's matchup specifics, THE BAT X expects him to average a .389 wOBA, .292 AVG, and .27 HRs. On the other side, Paul Goldschmidt (THE BAT X's #13th hitter in MLB) will bolster the Cardinals lineup. He projects for a .372 wOBA, .275 AVG, and .23 HRs.

New York Yankees Insights

  • Nestor Cortes is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.9% FB% according to THE BAT projections) and should be aided by pitching in the #22 HR venue in MLB in this matchup.

  • Matt Carpenter has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (51% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup today.

  • DJ LeMahieu has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (47.5%) and will be challenged by MLB's 2nd-deepest RF fences today.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

  • Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Dakota Hudson has utilized his fastball a lot this year, though: 53.9% of the time, checking in at the 76th percentile.

  • Lars Nootbaar has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 96.4-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 91.9-mph average.

  • The St. Louis Cardinals have been the 4th-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to THE BAT X, and are likely to hit worse the rest of the season

Betting Trends

  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 36 games at home (+9.75 Units / 19% ROI)

  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 35 of their last 58 games (+9.90 Units / 15% ROI)

  • Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 37 games at home (+12.90 Units / 17% ROI)