New York Yankees @ St. Louis Cardinals Matchup Preview - August 5th, 2022

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Friday evening the New York Yankees battle against the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium. The Yankees offense will be led by Aaron Judge, who ranks as the #2nd-best hitter in baseball according to THE BAT X. Given Aaron Judge's profile and today's matchup specifics, THE BAT X expects him to average a .389 wOBA, .292 AVG, and .27 HRs. On the other side, Paul Goldschmidt (THE BAT X's #13th hitter in MLB) will bolster the Cardinals lineup. He projects for a .372 wOBA, .275 AVG, and .23 HRs.

New York Yankees Insights

  • Nestor Cortes is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.9% FB% according to THE BAT projections) and should be aided by pitching in the #22 HR venue in MLB in this matchup.

  • Matt Carpenter has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (51% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup today.

  • DJ LeMahieu has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (47.5%) and will be challenged by MLB's 2nd-deepest RF fences today.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

  • Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Dakota Hudson has utilized his fastball a lot this year, though: 53.9% of the time, checking in at the 76th percentile.

  • Lars Nootbaar has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 96.4-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 91.9-mph average.

  • The St. Louis Cardinals have been the 4th-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to THE BAT X, and are likely to hit worse the rest of the season

Betting Trends

  • The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 36 games at home (+9.75 Units / 19% ROI)

  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 35 of their last 58 games (+9.90 Units / 15% ROI)

  • Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 37 games at home (+12.90 Units / 17% ROI)