MLB Bet of the Day | May 23, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 71-61-4, +5.99u
RECAP: We drop two games yesterday as the Pirates fold in another historic fashion, and the White Sox unfortunately cannot throw an MLB-Caliber pitcher on the mound in any sort of consistent fashion. The under in that game was lost by like, the second inning, and the Pirates made us wait before killing us. Nevertheless, we’re still on a crazy run, and let’s use this slate to capitalize. 

May 23rd, 2024

This is absolutely a basic pick, but it’s on the back of two offenses that haven’t shown a crazy amount of promise, and two pitchers who are all the way into the “ace” category so far to begin the year. 

Luis Gil has proved himself as one of the best starters in the AL East to begin the season, and it’s because of his ability to avoid getting hit hard. The Mariners lineup is also absolutely abysmal today, as Gil has been able to limit the batters that the Mariners are putting forward. Heavy hitters like Polanco, Raleigh, and Haniger are all on the bench today against the righty. 

Gil also has elite advanced stats, including holding batters to .187 xBA and a hard hit percentage among the best in the league at 30%. Luis Castillo, the ace of the Mariners, strikes out a ton of batters and also limits batters on-base – that’s why we’re backing the under in this one. Both of these teams have dominated the under when it comes to their season totals. 

While both of these offenses have been really solid as of late, there’s a decent chance that neither offense has the wheels to get off of the ground. At home, Gil is allowing just one walk or hit per inning, and during day games, Gil has allowed just three earned runs in 22 innings. Castillo has also been elite during day games, allowing a WHIP of 1.00 and only eight earned runs over 24 innings. Those are some absolutely elite numbers. 

We’re getting this total at plus-money, and the books have moved in an opposite direction; but that doesn’t mean much to me. We can absolutely cash in on this plus-money play, as there’s very little evidence to show that either offense is going to be able to capitalize on these pitchers, who have been dominant. 

Let’s take the under 7.5 in this game and rely on these rested bullpens and these starters who have the capabilities to shove. 

PICK:  Seattle / New York under 7.5 (+100)

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