MLB Bet of the Day | May 22, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 71-59-4, +7.99u
RECAP: It was an absolutely massive day in the MLB yesterday, as we went 4-0 in our four PRO plays to gain 3.64 units on the day. It brings our MLB total up to nearly eight units, and we’ve gained sixteen units over the past 30 days. The heater is absolutely back on, as we’re literally running rampant through the betting streets right now - we’re on fire. Thanks to the Red Sox, White Sox, Guardians, and Brewers for keeping our run alive. 

May 22nd, 2024

We’ve reached the point where we need to start asking the important questions: when is the world going to relegate the Chicago White Sox to AAA? I don’t actually mean that, but today, we have a ton of sharp money on this under, and these pitchers are going to prove why this is going to be a low-scoring game. 

Chris Bassitt is on the mound for the Toronto Blue Jays, a pitcher who has returned to form after a rough beginning to the season. His past three outings have all been tremendous, allowing less than three runs per game in each and averaging six innings per start. The White Sox are the most abysmal offense in the country on the road against right-handed pitching, as they average .205 and less than 2.5 runs per game against the righties. They get on base only 26% of the time, which is just about as bad as you can get. And in his career, Bassitt has held the Sox to an expected batting average of .236, and allows an xwOBA of .296 - which is really, really good. 

Nick Nastrini is an interesting pitcher on the mound for the White Sox, as he’s pitched twice this season in a limited capacity. The Sox have high hopes for the prospect, as he’s pitched well over his first two starts… ish. In his advanced stats, he limits hard hits, but he struggles with free passes. 

That might be alright, as the Blue Jays also struggle at home against righties. They peak above the 30% mark as far as getting on base, but they only score just over four runs per game, and are hitting .251 at home in this scenario. Over their last ten, the numbers look relatively similar to their season outlook - which means that we’re dealing with a below-average offense against a pitcher that limits hard hits. 

Let’s take the under in this game that the Toronto Blue Jays will probably win by quite a bit - but we just need Bassitt to limit the damage, and we’ll be good to go. Let’s hammer the under. 

PICK: Chicago / Toronto under 8.5

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