MLB Bet of the Day | May 11, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 51-49-3, -0.02u
RECAP: Yesterday was one of the best days of our MLB season, as we went 3-0 and hit our fourth straight MLB of the Day in a row. Thanks to the Phillies for pounding the Marlins, and both the Cubs and Orioles had come-from-behind victories to secure 2.81 units of profit yesterday. We’re back at even, and the goal is, from this day forward, to never, ever, dip back into the negative again. That begins today in a massive afternoon and evening MLB slate! 

May 11th, 2024

The Houston Astros can’t keep this up forever, right? Primed to be one of the best teams in the league in the preseason, the AL West contender just cannot seem to put it together this season, and today, they face their absolute kryptonite: game two. 

In case you’ve been living under a rock, Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal is one of the most dominant pitchers in the league, and he’s taking on Christian Javier, who has also had a quietly very solid season to date. Neither of these team excel home nor away, and that means that we have to dive deep into the metrics of the pitchers and trends that we’re seeing. 

Javier has dominated this Tigers lineup in the past, but most of that is actually dominated by Mark Canha’s 17 plate appearances against the righty. Javier doesn’t strike anyone out and walks quite a bit of batters, but he doesn’t get hit hard. That’s quite alright, because in this ballpark, it’ll be neutralized anyways. 
Meanwhile, Skubal has been the most dominant pitcher in the AL, ranking in the top 90% of basically every statistical category when it comes to pitching.

While he’s clearly favored here, he’s lived up to the hype; he hasn’t allowed more than two runs in each of his last five starts, and he’s gone at least four innings in each of his last four starts. His home numbers are dazzling, and against a good pitcher, these Stros haven’t been able to put together a great outing. 

Now, Skubal can’t hit for the Tigers, which is the biggest concern. The bats haven’t been alive this season against righties at home, but the Tigers should use this to their advantage: the Astros absolutely stink in the second game of their series’ so far this season. It’s absolutely insane. They’re literally 2-10 this season when it comes to the second game of the series, and that’s one of the biggest things that we’re relying on today. 

The Tigers are in a slump, and I’m not saying that it’ll magically get solved today… but, they’re primed to win with their best pitcher on the mound. Let’s take Detroit today. 

PICK: Detroit Tigers ML

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