MLB Bet of the Day | June 12, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 95-91-4, -2.47u
RECAP: A late lineup scratch made our MLB of the Day a moot point, but the big win of the day was our Team Total Parlay, which we’ve hit in five out of the first six days completing it. All we do is identify two-three games in which certain teams are bound to score above certain runs, and we run with it - and it’s been one of the biggest reasons for our resurgence in profit this month. On to today! 

June 12th, 2024

In truth, I love Reese Olson and I think that this Tigers pitching staff is going to be nasty nasty one day – but today is not that day, and the Tigers literally never, ever give him run support.

In fact, the Tigers haven’t scored more than three runs in a game during one of his starts in either of his last five starts, and in June, it wouldn’t have helped them much. In his first two starts of the month, he’s given up 13 runs over just nine innings of work against the Brewers and the Red Sox. In all, this Detroit pitching staff has actually not been great whatsoever over their last ten games, with Detroit starters averaging six runs per game given up over their last 10. 

Jake Irvin is on the mound, and he’s been quietly one of the best statistical pitchers in the league - but when you look at his advanced stats, we’re seeing that he’s going to be able to keep it up, too. He’s pitched four straight quality starts and the under has hit in every single one of them - meaning that he’s been dominant as a pitcher over that stretch. He’s gifting opposing teams a WHIP of just .87 so far on the road this season, and the Nationals tend to win most of those games. 

Plus, if this game is tight (which is expected, based on the total runs expected in this game), the Nats have the better bullpen, especially as of late. The Tigers offense is hitting .192 over their last ten games and are only getting across just over three runs per game against right-handed pitching, getting on base only 24% of the time, which is obviously not ideal.

The away team here is the better offense and has the more consistent pitcher on the mound, and we’ll take this Nationals team to win at a plus-money number. They’ve been underrated all season, but today, they’ll get their flowers from me. Nationals to win.

PICK: Washington Nationals ML

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