Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals Matchup Preview - September 21st, 2022


The Twins are scheduled to start Bailey Ober (1-2, 3.49 ERA) against Royals starting pitcher Daniel Lynch (4-11, 5.15 ERA) on Wednesday. In Bailey Ober's last outing, the Twins lost 3-4 against the Guardians. He pitched 5 innings allowing 0 earned runs with 1 hit. He also recorded 5 strikeouts with 1 walk. The last time Daniel Lynch took the mound, he recorded a loss as the Royals got beat by the Twins 2-3. He finished with 5 IP, 8 K, 2 BB, while allowing 3 earned runs on 7 hits. Today, Ober projects for 5.18 innings pitched with 2.2 ER, 4.8 hits, 4.8 strikeouts, and 1 walks, according to THE BAT. Meanwhile, The Sharp Model projects Lynch's average outcome to be 6.31 IP, 2.7 ER, 6.1 H, 5.5 strikeouts, and 2 walks.

Minnesota Twins Insights

  • Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Bailey Ober has used his non-fastballs 7.3% more often this season (49.3%) than he did last year (42%).

  • Gary Sanchez has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (63% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game.

  • The Minnesota Twins bullpen profiles as the 9th-best in the game, according to THE BAT.

Kansas City Royals Insights

  • Daniel Lynch's 2119 rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 9th percentile among starting pitchers.

  • Michael A. Taylor has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 103.8-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal average of 90.4-mph.

  • Nicky Lopez has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.7%) and will be challenged by the league's 5th-deepest LF fences today.

Betting Trends

  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 37 games at home (+7.95 Units / 20% ROI)

  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 54 away games (+6.85 Units / 11% ROI)

  • Brent Rooker has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.35 Units / 71% ROI)