Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals Matchup Preview - September 21st, 2022
The Twins are scheduled to start Bailey Ober (1-2, 3.49 ERA) against Royals starting pitcher Daniel Lynch (4-11, 5.15 ERA) on Wednesday. In Bailey Ober's last outing, the Twins lost 3-4 against the Guardians. He pitched 5 innings allowing 0 earned runs with 1 hit. He also recorded 5 strikeouts with 1 walk. The last time Daniel Lynch took the mound, he recorded a loss as the Royals got beat by the Twins 2-3. He finished with 5 IP, 8 K, 2 BB, while allowing 3 earned runs on 7 hits. Today, Ober projects for 5.18 innings pitched with 2.2 ER, 4.8 hits, 4.8 strikeouts, and 1 walks, according to THE BAT. Meanwhile, The Sharp Model projects Lynch's average outcome to be 6.31 IP, 2.7 ER, 6.1 H, 5.5 strikeouts, and 2 walks.
Minnesota Twins Insights
Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Bailey Ober has used his non-fastballs 7.3% more often this season (49.3%) than he did last year (42%).
Gary Sanchez has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (63% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game.
The Minnesota Twins bullpen profiles as the 9th-best in the game, according to THE BAT.
Kansas City Royals Insights
Daniel Lynch's 2119 rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 9th percentile among starting pitchers.
Michael A. Taylor has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 103.8-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal average of 90.4-mph.
Nicky Lopez has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.7%) and will be challenged by the league's 5th-deepest LF fences today.
The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 37 games at home (+7.95 Units / 20% ROI)
The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 54 away games (+6.85 Units / 11% ROI)
Brent Rooker has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.35 Units / 71% ROI)