Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates Matchup Preview - August 3rd, 2022


Right-hander Freddy Peralta is expected to start today for Milwaukee, while right-hander Tyler Beede gets the nod at home for Pittsburgh. Peralta enters this contest with a 4.42 ERA, backed up by a 2.11 FIP (which is a better measure of the things a pitcher can control). Beede, meanwhile, has a 4.31 FIP underlying his 3.12 ERA. The last time Freddy Peralta was on the bump, he suffered the loss as the Brewers lost 2-8 against the Nationals. He left allowing 5 earned runs and recording 2 strikeouts with 1 walk.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

  • THE BAT X expects Freddy Peralta to be limited in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 70 pitches.

  • Victor Caratini is an extreme groundball batter and faces the strong infield defense of Pittsburgh (#2-best on the slate).

  • Projected catcher Omar Narvaez profiles as an elite pitch framer, via THE BAT projection system.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

  • Tyler Beede has been lucky this year, putting up a 3.12 ERA despite THE BAT estimating his true talent level to be 5.29 — a 2.17 difference.

  • Greg Allen has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (50% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.

  • The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen projects as the worst in the game, per THE BAT.

Betting Trends

  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games (+9.15 Units / 35% ROI)

  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 41 of their last 72 games (+11.60 Units / 15% ROI)

  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 32 games at home (+13.60 Units / 27% ROI)