Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates Matchup Preview - August 2nd, 2022


Right-hander Corbin Burnes is expected to start today for Milwaukee, while right-hander Bryse Wilson gets the nod at home for Pittsburgh. Burnes enters this contest with a 2.31 ERA, backed up by a 2.93 FIP (which is a better measure of the things a pitcher can control). Wilson, meanwhile, has a 4.68 FIP underlying his 6.31 ERA. The last time Corbin Burnes was on the bump, he recorded the win as the Brewers defeated the Twins 10-4. He left allowing 3 earned runs and recording 11 strikeouts with 0 walks. Wilson's last start was against the Cubs, when he recorded the loss as the Pirates were defeated 2-4. Over 6 innings pitched, he allowed 3 earned runs with 6 hits. He also recorded 2 strikeouts with 1 walk.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

  • Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Corbin Burnes must realize this, because he has used his off-speed and breaking balls a lot this year: 92.4% of the time, ranking in the 100th percentile.

  • Luis Urias has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (63% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this game.

  • The 13.3% Barrel% of the Milwaukee Brewers grades them out as the #10 squad in the game since the start of last season by this metric.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

  • Calvin Mitchell has seen a big increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 93.4-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 90-mph figure.

  • Yoshi Tsutsugo has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and will be challenged by the league's 9th-deepest LF fences today.

Betting Trends

  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 94 games (+10.35 Units / 10% ROI)

  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 43 of their last 74 games (+13.65 Units / 17% ROI)

  • Kolten Wong has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 23 games (+7.45 Units / 32% ROI)