Cincinnati Reds @ Miami Marlins Matchup Preview - August 3rd, 2022


The Reds are scheduled to start Mike Minor (1-7, 6.31 ERA) against Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara (9-4, 1.99 ERA) on Wednesday. In Mike Minor's last outing, the Reds lost 2-6 against the Orioles. He pitched 5.1 innings allowing 2 earned runs with 4 hits. He also recorded 4 strikeouts with 3 walks. The last time Sandy Alcantara took the mound, the Marlins got beat by the Mets 4-6. He finished with 5 IP, 5 K, 3 BB, while allowing 4 earned runs on 8 hits. Today, Minor projects for 6.74 innings pitched with 2.7 ER, 6.0 hits, 6.0 strikeouts, and 1.9 walks, according to THE BAT. Meanwhile, THE BAT projects Alcantara's average outcome to be 7.23 IP, 2.0 ER, 5.3 H, 7.8 strikeouts, and 1.6 walks.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

  • Mike Minor has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 4.6 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.

  • Jake Fraley's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 90.3-mph mark last season has lowered to 84.9-mph.

  • The Cincinnati Reds bullpen projects as the worst in Major League Baseball, per THE BAT.

Miami Marlins Insights

  • Sandy Alcantara has been lucky with his ERA this year; his 1.99 rate is quite a bit lower than his 2.95 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).

  • Bryan De La Cruz has been unlucky with his batting average this year; his .210 BA is quite a bit lower than his .267 Expected Batting Average (based on THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data).

  • Joey Wendle has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.9%) and will be challenged by the game's 8th-deepest LF fences today.

Betting Trends

  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 15 games at home (+3.50 Units / 21% ROI)

  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 46 of their last 76 games (+15.45 Units / 18% ROI)

  • Brian Anderson has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 29 games at home (+10.25 Units / 22% ROI)