Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Matchup Preview - September 22nd, 2022


Right-hander Hayden Wesneski is expected to start today for Chicago, while right-hander Mitch Keller gets the nod at home for Pittsburgh. Wesneski enters this contest with a 2.30 ERA, backed up by a 2.86 FIP (which is a better measure of the things a pitcher can control). Keller, meanwhile, has a 3.90 FIP underlying his 4.03 ERA. The last time Hayden Wesneski was on the bump, the Cubs lost 1-3 versus the Rockies. He left allowing 1 earned run and recording 7 strikeouts with 0 walks. Keller's last start was against the Mets, when he recorded the loss as the Pirates were defeated 3-4. Over 6 innings pitched, he allowed 3 earned runs with 5 hits. He also recorded 6 strikeouts with 2 walks.

Chicago Cubs Insights

  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have 7 batters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage over Hayden Wesneski in this matchup.

  • Michael Hermosillo has been unlucky with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .245 figure is quite a bit lower than his .391 Expected wOBA (based on The Sharp Model X's interpretation of Statcast data).

  • Patrick Wisdom has a high pull rate on his flyballs (40.3% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by the game's 9th-deepest LF fences today.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

  • Mitch Keller's fastball velocity has risen 2.1 mph this year (95.3 mph) over where it was last season (93.2 mph).

  • Michael Chavis has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (81% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.

  • The Pittsburgh Pirates (25.8 K%, per The Sharp Model X) project to have the 2nd-most strikeout-heavy lineup today.

Betting Trends

  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 7 of their last 13 games (+2.45 Units / 17% ROI)

  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 away games (+6.30 Units / 70% ROI)

  • Oneil Cruz has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 14 games at home (+6.10 Units / 43% ROI)