Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Matchup Preview - September 22nd, 2022
Editor
Right-hander Hayden Wesneski is expected to start today for Chicago, while right-hander Mitch Keller gets the nod at home for Pittsburgh. Wesneski enters this contest with a 2.30 ERA, backed up by a 2.86 FIP (which is a better measure of the things a pitcher can control). Keller, meanwhile, has a 3.90 FIP underlying his 4.03 ERA. The last time Hayden Wesneski was on the bump, the Cubs lost 1-3 versus the Rockies. He left allowing 1 earned run and recording 7 strikeouts with 0 walks. Keller's last start was against the Mets, when he recorded the loss as the Pirates were defeated 3-4. Over 6 innings pitched, he allowed 3 earned runs with 5 hits. He also recorded 6 strikeouts with 2 walks.
Chicago Cubs Insights
The Pittsburgh Pirates have 7 batters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage over Hayden Wesneski in this matchup.
Michael Hermosillo has been unlucky with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .245 figure is quite a bit lower than his .391 Expected wOBA (based on The Sharp Model X's interpretation of Statcast data).
Patrick Wisdom has a high pull rate on his flyballs (40.3% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by the game's 9th-deepest LF fences today.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
Mitch Keller's fastball velocity has risen 2.1 mph this year (95.3 mph) over where it was last season (93.2 mph).
Michael Chavis has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (81% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.
The Pittsburgh Pirates (25.8 K%, per The Sharp Model X) project to have the 2nd-most strikeout-heavy lineup today.
Betting Trends
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 7 of their last 13 games (+2.45 Units / 17% ROI)
The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 away games (+6.30 Units / 70% ROI)
Oneil Cruz has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 14 games at home (+6.10 Units / 43% ROI)