Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Matchup Preview - September 22nd, 2022


Thursday evening the Boston Red Sox battle against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. The Red Sox offense will be led by Rafael Devers, who ranks as the #21st-best hitter in baseball according to The Sharp Model X. Given Rafael Devers's profile and today's matchup specifics, The Sharp Model X expects him to average a .336 wOBA, .248 AVG, and .24 HRs. On the other side, Aaron Judge (The Sharp Model X's #1st hitter in MLB) will bolster the Yankees lineup. He projects for a .415 wOBA, .304 AVG, and .31 HRs.

Boston Red Sox Insights

  • The Boston Red Sox infield defense profiles as the worst of all teams on the slate.

  • Trevor Story is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of New York (#3-best of the day).

  • Boston's 89.7-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season ranks among the elite in MLB: #3 overall.

New York Yankees Insights

  • Jameson Taillon projects to record 18.1 outs today, according to The Sharp Model X.

  • Aaron Judge has made big improvements with his Barrel%, bettering his 17.9% rate last season to 26.2% this season.

  • Kyle Higashioka has a high pull rate on his flyballs (38.8% — 98th percentile) and will be challenged by the game's 7th-deepest LF fences today.

Betting Trends

  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.00 Units / 20% ROI)

  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 38 of their last 68 games (+7.90 Units / 10% ROI)

  • Aaron Judge has hit the RBIs Over in 31 of his last 54 games (+10.75 Units / 19% ROI)