Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Matchup Preview - September 21st, 2022


Christian Walker and the D-Backs go head-to-head against Freddie Freeman and the Dodgers today. Over the last 7 days, Christian Walker has provided the bulk of the offense for D-Backs. He's batted .250 with 4 runs, 5 RBIs, and 3 home runs. Meanwhile, it's been Freddie Freeman who has been hot for the Dodgers. Over the last week, he's batting .364 with 5 runs, 3 RBIs, and 1 stolen bases.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

  • Madison Bumgarner's fastball spin rate has decreased 101 rpm this season (2200 rpm) below where it was last year (2301 rpm).

  • Carson Kelly has seen a big increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 95.8-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 87.6-mph average.

  • Daulton Varsho has a high pull rate on his flyballs (39% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by the league's 9th-deepest RF fences today.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

  • Dustin May is an extreme groundball pitcher (48.8% GB% per The Sharp Model projections), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Dodger Stadium — the #4 HR venue in Major League Baseball — in this game.

  • Joey Gallo is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Arizona (#1-best of all teams on the slate).

  • Today’s version of the Dodgers projected lineup is a bit watered down, as their .325 The Sharp Model X wOBA is considerably below their .340 overall projected rate.

Betting Trends

  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 32 of their last 55 games (+12.15 Units / 20% ROI)

  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 52 of their last 74 games (+32.05 Units / 38% ROI)

  • Justin Turner has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games at home (+8.85 Units / 47% ROI)