Statsational Super Bowl LVII Analysis and Picks
Super Bowl LVII features the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles. The game will be played at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.
All sportsbooks agree, and the Sharp App shows the Eagles as a -1.5 favorite. The total of 50.5 can also be found universally.
In the 8 Super Bowls with a line <3, the favorite has gone 5-3 SU and ATS. The line has yet to be a factor.
In Super Bowls with a total >50, the Under has gone 9-4.
We have one shot left. If you read my article pre-start of the playoffs, you know we had Philadelphia and Cincinnati in futures bets to win the Super Bowl. Coming into the playoffs, Philadelphia was a dog to Kansas City, but they go into this game a favorite which has increased our EV on the bet.
Let's go over the essential stats that help predict Super Bowl winners.
Passing TD Percentage
Teams that use the pass to score a high percentage of their points tend to outperform in the Super Bowl. The Chiefs finished 2nd with a 69.7% passing TD percentage. The Eagles were 32nd at 39.71%. This is a product of their offense and Jalen Hurts ability to run, but this is a significant disparity. Edge Chiefs
Rushing Attempts Per Game
The number of Rushing Attempts per game indicates a great team when combined with a high passing TD%. It shows a team that can pass to take the lead and run the ball to hold on to it. The Eagles were the best in the league at 33.3%. The Chiefs come in 25th at 24.6%. Edge Eagles
Yards Per Pass Attempt
Passing is crucial to winning in the NFL and has been forever. The adage that great teams run the ball to win isn't always true. Both of these teams were near the top in this category. The Eagles and Chiefs are tied for second with 7.9 yards per pass attempt. No Edge
Defensive Yards Per Pass Attempt
Limiting the opponent in the same category is equally important if it is essential to be efficient in the passing game. The Eagles are best in the league at 5.4 YPPA, while Kansas City is pretty good at 6th with a 6.0 YPPA against. Slight Edge Eagles
Turnover differential per game
Turnovers can be attributed to luck many times. When you have an outstanding QB who makes the right decisions, it reduces luck. The Eagles have an edge with a 0.6 TO differential compared to 0.0 from the Chiefs. Edge Eagles
Sacks per game
The game is often won or lost with pass protection or lack thereof. If you can get pressure on the QB, you are on your way to a successful day. The Eagles are by far the best in the NFL at 4.1 SPG. The closest team to them is the Kansas City Chiefs at 3.3 SPG. Edge Eagles
Scoring Margin
It seems obvious, but teams with a high scoring margin are better. The Eagles are the top team in the league with a 9.9 SM, while Kansas City is 4th at a 7.2 SM. Edge Eagles
Position by Position
QB
QB is a tough one to call. Jalen Hurts may be the league MVP this season. Patrick Mahomes is already considered one of the greatest QBs of all time in his short career. Mahomes boasts the better QB Rating coming into the game at a 105.5 to 100.6 advantage. Hurts is more than just throwing the ball, however. Jalen brings the running element into the game more than Mahomes does, especially with Patrick nursing a high ankle sprain. We can not imagine he will be very mobile, which has made the Eagles a favorite in this game. Hurts has impressed the most in his ability not to make the crucial mistake. Hurts is second in the league in Interception percentage at 1.2%. Mahomes is 8th at 1.7%. Slight Edge Eagles
RBs
The Eagles got 4.7 yards per rush attempt out of the RB position this season. Miles Sanders did the heavy lifting with 259 attempts and 1279 yards. The Eagles will use Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell, as seen through the playoffs. The Chiefs have used 5 RBs this year, but coming into this game, only two are getting any significant touches. Jerrick McKinnon and Isiah Pacheco lead the way. Pacheco is a hard runner and averages 4.9 yards per attempt. McKinnon is the pass-catching threat out of the backfield. He averages 9.1 yards per catch. Edge Chiefs
WRs
The WRs are a mess on the Chiefs' side. JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Kadarius Toney will be ready to play for the Super Bowl, but coach Andy Reid needed to be more optimistic about deep threat Mecole Hardman. The Eagles will have their starters ready to go, including the dual threat of Davonte Smith and AJ Brown. The Eagles targeted their WRs 351 times for 3,196 yards compared to 300 for 2,653 for the Chiefs. The Eagles' passing game relies heavily on their top 2 WRs. Edge Eagles
TE
While the Eagles have a pretty good Tight End in Dallas Goedart, there is one clear best TE in the game: Travis Kelce of the Chiefs. Kelce saw 152 targets and caught 110 of them for 1,338 yards. That is more than twice the yards of the next tight end. He also tripled up the second best tight end for touchdowns accounting for 12 in the regular season. Goedart had half the catches for slightly more than half the yards and just three touchdowns. Big Edge Chiefs
Offensive Line
The Eagles finished 1st this year on the Pro Football Focus O-Line rankings. The biggest flaw with this line in 2022 was penalties. With 44 as a unit, the Eagles were tied for the most penalized line in the NFL. Lane Johnson didn't allow a sack or a hit all season long and surrendered just nine hurries across 551 pass-blocking snaps. The Chiefs finished 4th on the Pro Football Focus O-Line rankings. The biggest weakness has been Andrew Wylie. He surrendered nine sacks and 49 total pressures over the season. Creed Humphrey is the new gold standard at the center position when it comes to run blocking. He also didn't give up a sack all season and earned a 79.7 PFF pass-blocking grade. Slight Edge Eagles
Pass Rush
The Eagles finished tops in the league with an 11.49% sack percentage. They were second in pressure percentage at 25.5%. The Chiefs were 5th in Sack % at 8.15% and had a pressure percentage of 24.9%, good for 5th overall. Both teams are middle of the pack in blitz %. The Eagles blitz 22.1% of the time, while the Chiefs bring extra men 24.2%. Edge Eagles
Run Defense
Neither team is particularly dominant against the run. The Eagles give up 4.6 yards per rush, while the Chiefs are slightly better at 4.5 YPR. My projections for the game have the Eagles outrushing the Chiefs 143-110, but much of that yardage is credited to Hurts. No Edge
Pass Coverage
The Chiefs' top two cornerbacks rate out well on PFF pass coverage numbers. L'Jarius Sneed gets a 76.8 and is the 10th-best overall CB. Trent McDuffie has a coverage rating of 75.6 and is 21st overall. The Eagles have a couple of good CBs as well. James Bradberry has a 79.4 coverage rating and is 18th overall. Darius Slay has a 78.1 coverage rating and also ranks 18th overall. No Edge
Picks
The line tells you this should be a very close game. When I run through the numbers, all signs point toward a Philadelphia win. My model likes the Eagles by 1.5 but does not factor in any injury to Mahomes. He should be better than in the AFC championship game, but Mahomes still has not had ample time to rest his ankle. By the second half, we could see him hobbling around again. There is also no guarantee he can stay healthy the entire game. I would give an additional 1.5 points to Philadelphia based on this. That would put my line at Eagles -3.
What Jacksonville and Cincinnati were unable to do is exactly what the Eagles will do, and that is getting pressure on Mahomes. The Eagles are the best pressure team in the NFL. With Mahomes less mobile than he usually is, this will be a key to the Eagles' success on defense. Offensively I expect Hurts to have a big game. The Chiefs are one of the worst teams in DFS to opposing QBs, giving up over three more points than those QBs average. Having to face one of the best QBs in football this season will be a test the Chiefs will need to handle better. Hurts can keep the Chiefs' pass rush in check by breaking off some big runs. Something Mahomes is not capable of currently. If the Chiefs try and bring pressure, that will open up some deep shots to Smith and Brown. I expect at least one big TD catch from either, if not both. Philadelphia -1.5I will post some prop articles next week. Be on the lookout.