Find Out Who Will NOT Be Winning The Super Bowl This Year! Statsational Super Bowl Futures 2023!!!
Every year, I examine each team in the NFL Playoffs with the aim of identifying value in potential Super Bowl winners. As I've noted before, the team that emerges victorious in the playoffs is not necessarily the best team of the season but rather the team that performs best in the tournament at year's end. While determining the best team can be subjective, the playoffs provide a definitive way to settle things on the field. However, this can also mean that a lesser team may get lucky with favorable matchups and have a successful run at the championship.
Over the past 21 seasons, only 5 out of 21 teams with the best regular season record or tied for the best record have gone on to win the Super Bowl: the 2002 Buccaneers, 2003 Patriots, 2013 Seahawks, 2014 Patriots (one of five 12-4 teams that year), and 2017 Philadelphia Eagles (one of four teams tied at 13-3). In light of this, considering long shots can often be beneficial.
I used to use three filters to identify potential winners for the Super Bowl, and in recent years, I have added a few more. While this strategy is quite basic, it is effective for eliminating unlikely candidates for the championship
Here are my filters
1. Total Yardage DifferentialThe team must have a total yardage differential per game >18 (just four teams have won the Super Bowl with less)
Teams failing to qualify;LA ChargersBaltimore RavensMinnesota VikingsJacksonville JaguarsNY GiantsSeattle Seahawks
2. Turnover DifferentialTeams must be + in turnover differential (just seven teams won the Super Bowl with a – differential)
Teams failing to qualify:Kansas City ChiefsTampa Bay BucsMiami Dolphins
3. SRS RatingNo team has ever won with a negative SRS from Pro Football Reference.
Teams failing to qualify:LA ChargersTampa Bay BucsMinnesota VikingsNY GiantsSeattle Seahawks4. Passer Rating DifferentialThis stat looks at a team’s Offensive Passer Rating and subtracts its Defensive Passer Rating. This stat was shown to be relevant to Super Bowl success by the guys at Cold Hard Football Facts. In their analysis, they go back to 1940. Here are some key points
– 18 of 81 NFL Champs finished #1 in Offensive Passer Rating (22.2%)
– 21 of 81 finished #1 in Defensive Passer Rating (26%)
– 27 of 81 finished #1 in Passer Rating Differential (33.3%)
– 45 of 81 finished in the top 3 in Passer Rating Differential (55.6%)
– 76 of 81 finished in the top 10 in Passer Rating Differential (94%)
Teams failing to qualify:Dallas CowboysTampa Bay BucsBaltimore RavensMinnesota VikingsNY GiantsMiami Dolphins5. Yards per Pass and Yards Per RushTo reinforce the notion that passing and being able to stop the pass are the most important factors in championship success, we will look at a couple more stats. Yards per Pass and Yards Per Rush. Both offensive and defensive and combined.The Super Bowl winner has averaged a rank of 7.5 in Offensive Yards Per Pass and 7.23 in Defensive YPP while averaging 12.85in Offensive Yards Per Rush and 11.33 in Defensive YPR. Only 13 of the 52 Super Bowl winners did the winner have a better combined rushing ranking than passing. Of those 13, the 1979 Steelers ranked first in 3 of the four categories with a two ranking in DYPP. The 1988 49ers were no worse than 9(OYPP) in any category. In 2015 the Broncos were dominant defensively, ranking 1 in rushing and 2 in passing. The 2017 Eagles combined for 16 ranking points in passing and 10 in rushing.
Teams failing to qualify:San Francisco 49ersBaltimore RavensJacksonville JaguarsNY Giants6. Scoring MarginOne last stat to look at is Scoring Margin. Super Bowl winners have averaged a 9.43 scoring margin. No team has ever won with a negative scoring margin. Of the last 48 Super Bowl winners, just 8 have finished with a scoring margin below 6. The Rams had a 5.2-scoring margin last season, but that was 6th in the NFL.
Teams failing to qualify:Tampa Bay BucsMinnesota VikingsNY GiantsMiami Dolphins
7. Z ScoreA few seasons ago, I started looking at the average for each of the most important stats and finding the standard deviation from the mean for each team in each stat. I take every team’s Z Score in each stat and add them up.
As you can see, most of these teams would be considered below average for a Super Bowl winner. Only San Francisco and Philadelphia would be an above-average Super Bowl winner. In recent years teams have become less dominant against the rest of the league. In other words, parity has taken over the NFL. Since 2014 the highest-ranked Super Bowl winner was the 2016 Patriots, who come in 15th overall. Five of the other eight winners were ranked 40th or lower.Analysis
Whenever I am betting on a future event with many possibilities, I first want to eliminate the teams I do not think have a chance to win based on the above stats. If I remove the team prior, I won't list them again if they qualify to be removed.
1. Let's remove the teams with a sub 0 SRS.LA ChargersTampa Bay BucsMinnesota VikingsNY GiantsSeattle Seahawks2. Only 1 team ever won the Super Bowl with a negative yard differential.Let's removeBaltimore RavensJacksonville Jaguarsfrom the list3. Teams under a 9 in passer rating differential have won just six times. Let's removeDallas CowboysMiami Dolphins4. I will remove teams with a negative turnover differentialKansas City ChiefsWe are left with the following contenders.Buffalo Bills +420 FD San Francisco 49ers +550 FD Philadelphia Eagles +550 CaesarsCincinnati Bengals +850 PB
Buffalo +420 FanduelI am not completely convinced that we should bet on Buffalo. Firstly, I prefer not to bet on four teams, as it reduces my potential for success. Buffalo is the easiest to eliminate among the remaining four teams on our list. Their flat turnover margin already puts them on the edge. While it's true that Buffalo is one of the stronger teams in the league, if I can avoid betting on the team with the shortest odds, I will do so. If you feel the need to include Buffalo in your bets, I would take them for a smaller amount. Enough to get you back to even if they win it all.
San Francisco 49ers +550 FanduelAnother team we should consider eliminating that makes our final list is San Francisco. No rookie quarterback has ever made it to the Super Bowl, let alone win one. At +550, the 49ers are still a pretty short price. If you are feeling aggressive, you could eliminate Buffalo and San Francisco from your futures bets. The slightly less aggressive approach would be to take SF for an amount to get you to break even should they win. Similar to what I suggested with Buffalo. Philadelphia Eagles +550 CaesarsThe Eagles get the home-field advantage in the NFC. That has equated to a 2-point edge over the visitor in the '22-'23 season. The Eagles finished 4th on my rankings for the season. They have the 3rd best offense and the 9th overall defense in my model. We got to see Jalen Hurts back on the field last week. The extra week of rest should help him continue to heal. Against the backups of the NY Giants, the Eagles were content to shackle Hurts and not let him run as he usually does. Come the divisional round, I expect he will be ready to go all out. In one of the most important stats for success in the postseason, Philadelphia ranks 3rd this year in passer rating differential. They are second, just behind Cincinnati on the defensive side of the stat. It will be tough for any of the NFC teams to be successful enough in the air against this team to beat them. San Francisco has the best shot to do it, but do we want to back a rookie QB?Cincinnati Bengals +850 PointsbetWith a year more experience, the Bengals may be poised to make a return to the Super Bowl. The Bengals got off to a slow start, losing their first two games of the season. They have finished strong, winning eight straight games coming into the postseason. There is no telling how the Monday Night Game against Buffalo would have played out, but the Bengals were the better team in that first quarter of play. Cincinnati leads the league in passer rating differential. They are not a team that turns the ball over much, just 18 during the year. On the flip side, they do not cause a ton of turnovers on defense with just 24, but that does put them at a respectable +6 in turnover margin. They are 1 of three teams to rank in the top 10 in both offensive passing yards per attempt and defensive passing yards per attempt. The team seems to be coming together at the right time. We get a good price because the road to the Super Bowl will not be easy in the AFC.SummaryOption 1 Play all 4 to win 4 units on each. The total risk is 2.88 units.Win ScenariosBuffalo win: +2.07 unitsSF or Phi win: +1.85 unitsCin win: +1.59 unitsOption 2 Remove Buffalo and play all to win 3 units. Total risk 1.44 unitsSF or Phi win: +2.1 unitsCin win: +1.91 unitsOption 3 Play everyone but Buffalo to win 4 units and play Buffalo to win 2 units. Total risk 2.4 units.Buffalo win: +.07 unitsSF or Phi win: +2.33 unitsCin win: +2.07 unitsOption 4 Play everyone but SF to win 4 units and play SF to win 2 units. Total risk 2.51 units.Buffalo win: +2.44 unitsSF win: -.15 unitsPhi win: +2.21 unitsCin win: +1.96 unitsOption 5 Play Philly and Cinncinati to win 3 units each. Play Buffalo and SF to win 1 unit each. Total risk 1.32 units.Buffalo win: -.08 unitsSF win: -.14 unitsPhi win: +2.23 unitsCin win: +2.03 unitsOption 6 Play just Philly and Cincinnati to win 2 units each. Total risk 1.02 units.Phi win: +1.76 unitsCIn win: +1.64 unitsObviously, you can change these to suit your own risk, but I wanted to give you an idea of a few ways to play it.With this season's craziness, we can not be too shocked by any winner.Good Luck!