Anthony P's WNBA Model September 5, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

This betting model is derived directly from a source that provides me with all the information for the Sharp Report which I trust implicitly. This model serves as a foundation for determining and handling game lines and totals. As with any model, it incorporates a statistical analysis of both teams, including factors such as injuries and home-court advantage. The distinctive advantage of this model is the inclusion of adjustments based on public perception and early market evaluation. However, it's important to note that this model doesn't accommodate last-minute adjustments. Therefore, for the most accurate and up-to-date advice, I encourage you to reach out to me directly on my Discord channel.

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WNBA BETTING MODEL FOR SEP 5, 2023

As we move through the WNBA's season, Tuesday’s four-game slate brings us a tantalizing betting landscape featuring two home underdogs that promise value. Betting against the spread (ATS) on home underdogs has been a relatively profitable strategy all season, with a 46-36-2 record covering 56% of the games. Although that figure has dipped from 60% over the last 45 days, it still offers a crucial vantage point as the season winds down.

Let's dive deep into how the betting markets are reacting to these matchups, what the numbers indicate, and why there might be value for the contrarian bettor.

Liberty vs. Wings: The High-Stakes Dance

In what appears to be a lopsided affair at first glance, the Dallas Wings find themselves opening as 4.5-point underdogs against the New York Liberty, with the line soaring to -6 at market makers. Some books, like Circa, have even moved the line to -7. This is likely influenced by a staggering 90% of the handle supporting the Liberty, who have been making a case to be the top seed in the league with a jaw-dropping 13 wins in their last 14 games.

Yet the Wings are not to be overlooked. They're currently sitting in the fourth seed and are winning games at a respectable pace. Moreover, the Liberty's ATS performance on the road is 6-2 in their last eight games, while the Wings have struggled at home lately, going 1-5 ATS. A discerning bettor might argue that this is the perfect contrarian spot to back the home dog. However, to take the Wings, you’d likely need more points as the Liberty are on a blistering win streak and covering numbers with authority. Most notably, the lack of sharp money on New York implies that the inflated line is largely the work of square money—a classic trap for the uninformed bettor.

Phoenix Mercury: The Tempting Home Dog

In Phoenix, the Mercury, despite a disastrous run of form, opened at +6 and saw the line move to +7.5 with a whopping 80% of the handle backing their opponents. Here’s the rub: the Washington Mystics, despite being the obvious favorites, have been far from convincing, particularly on the road where they have a 5-13 straight-up (SU) record.

The Mystics, now the seventh seed, are the antithesis of road warriors, having lost 15 of their last 23 games. They're battling for a playoff spot, while the Mercury has practically nothing left to play for, yet the line may offer a tempting angle for contrarian bettors. The betting sentiment strongly tilts towards the Mystics, but are they really the team you want to lay chalk with? It might be time to bet against the public sentiment and grab the free points with the Mercury.

The Final Whistle

In sports betting, numbers are essential, but so are the situations and contexts in which they appear. As we edge closer to the WNBA playoffs, it's not just about who is winning, but also about the 'how' and 'why.' Market psychology often overshadows team performance, and Tuesday’s slate provides a bevy of lessons for those looking to turn a profit in the dog days of the WNBA season.

Remember, the best bets often come from knowing not just where the public money is flowing, but also from understanding how that shapes the odds on the board. Proceed with caution, but also with the insight that sometimes the underdog has its day.

MODEL Bets: Dallas +7, Phoenix +7.5
Anthony's leans: Phoenix +7.5

Good luck

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