Anthony P's WNBA Model July 7, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

This betting model is derived directly from a source that provides me with all the information for the Sharp Report which I trust implicitly. This model serves as a foundation for determining and handling game lines and totals. As with any model, it incorporates a statistical analysis of both teams, including factors such as injuries and home-court advantage. The distinctive advantage of this model is the inclusion of adjustments based on public perception and early market evaluation. However, it's important to note that this model doesn't accommodate last-minute adjustments. Therefore, for the most accurate and up-to-date advice, I encourage you to reach out to me directly on my Discord channel.

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WNBA BETTING MODEL FOR JULY 7, 2023

Our prediction model landed a push on the Sun's dominating game's total, which could have gone either way depending on whether you managed to catch the 166.5 or got stuck at 165.5.

It's crucial to grasp the bookmakers' behavior in a sport where liquidity isn't as high as in other major sports.

When it comes to the Mystics, the bookmakers started with a projection of -4, veering slightly from their expected -5, reflecting a public sentiment that desired a figure below -5. However, my model sees this margin swelling up to -9, factoring in home-court advantage. Considering that the Mystics might have to play without key players like Cloud and Delle Donne, the -4 starting line appears justifiable. But with the line sliding towards -3 and the Mystics likely missing their top scorer Elena Delle Donne due to an ankle injury, it does ring some alarm bells. Despite a string of defeats, Indiana has shown an ability to cover the spread on the road. Although the Mystics suffered a disheartening loss to Dallas, their top-tier defense, which leads the league in points and field goal percentage allowed, could turn things around. Even with the Fever's five-game losing streak, I find the current -3 line too generous, even without Delle Donna, and it smells fishy. I'd rather keep my distance.

In other news, the Aces saw the bookmakers set the line at -7 while the market opened them at -10, then revised to -9. If Plum doesn't make it to the court tonight, the -7 projection appears more plausible. Despite Vegas being the best team in the league, Dallas has shown some prowess, covering three straight against them and nearly pulling off a win on Wednesday. So, with sharps favoring Dallas, bookmakers are understandably inflating the Aces' numbers.

Lastly, let's take a quick look at Minnesota. They've been on a roll, going undefeated straight up and against the spread in their last four games and seven of their last ten. The Mercury, however, have been struggling, with only one of their three victories coming against the Lynx. Minnesota's superior performance and playoff hopes give them an edge, while the Mercury's recent 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS record indicates a rough patch. Even though Minnesota appears to be a clear favorite, things can flip quickly in the WNBA. Oddly enough, the bookmakers started with a lowball -2.5 line for the Lynx, which, unsurprisingly, led to a flurry of bets and pushed the line to -5. As the Mercury will be missing Taurasi, my model suggests a Lynx line of -7.6, which complicates things further. Topping it off is a trend indicating the Mercury's poor ATS record in their previous 19 meetings in Minnesota. It's a mystery whether the Lynx is trap game or not based on the breakdown of the lines and model, but ill support them at -4 or better.

MODEL Bets: Dallas +9.5 or better.

Anthony's leans: Dallas +10 or better if Plum doesn't play. Minnesota at -4 or better.


Good luck

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