Anthony P's WNBA Model July 18, 2023

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This betting model is derived directly from a source that provides me with all the information for the Sharp Report which I trust implicitly. This model serves as a foundation for determining and handling game lines and totals. As with any model, it incorporates a statistical analysis of both teams, including factors such as injuries and home-court advantage. The distinctive advantage of this model is the inclusion of adjustments based on public perception and early market evaluation. However, it's important to note that this model doesn't accommodate last-minute adjustments. Therefore, for the most accurate and up-to-date advice, I encourage you to reach out to me directly on my Discord channel.

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WNBA BETTING MODEL FOR JULY 18, 2023

The WNBA stars are back from their all-star hiatus and ready to ball out in the second half of the season. In our last piece, we had a couple of plays on the table. The model was vibing with the under in Atlanta, and even though I wasn't entirely on board, the model nailed it. I had a personal hunch on Indiana at +9 or better, and they covered the spread, even though they were outscored by 8 in overtime.

Before the break, here's how the league's trends were shaping up:

Now, let's take a quick peek at some of the league's trends. Our last update was on July 5, and here's a summary for you:

• Underdogs ATS 53.3%, a big drop since the 66% season peak.

• Away underdogs 50.3%

• Home underdogs moved up from 56 to 57.1%

• Overs were at 53% up from 47.5% while most of the season it was at 50/50
  

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The Sun saw their line shift from -6.5 to -7.5 overnight, with some books even flirting with a -8.5 before dialing it back to -7.5. The sharp report reveals that the smart money is backing the Sun at -7.5. Despite the line dancing around in different markets, the sharps are still sunbathing, with no other sharp bets placed on the Mercury. The model's raw projection for this game is -8, and it would've been -12 if Jones was in the mix. The books that opened this line at -6.5 are undervaluing the Sun. The Sun is shining with a 16-6 ATS record in their last 22 road games and a 5-2 ATS record in their last 7 games overall. The Mercury, on the other hand, are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.

I've given the Mercury the benefit of the doubt a few times this season but that didn't work out for me. They've got to prove themselves. The Sun is as steady as they come, having won 3 straight, while the Mercury has lost 4 of their last 5. There's no value in this game, but if you want to ride the wave of sharp money and snag a 1/2-point edge based on the model's projection, go with the Sun!

As for the night's second game, things get intriguing. Taking into account the Lynx's injuries, my margin model pegs the Dream at -6.5, without any home-court advantage bump since they've been struggling at home. I had a good laugh at DraftKings when I saw they opened the line at -3.5. I was taken aback when I received the raw projections from the book and saw that their projection also sat at -3.5. However, the book opened the line at -6, with public perception favoring the Dream in the open markets. Since then, the line has been oscillating between -5.5 and -6.

Minnesota has been solid on the road, while Atlanta has been floundering at home. The Lynx are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Dream are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 home games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. This feels like a cakewalk for Minnesota, but I beg to differ. The Minnesota Lynx have shown flashes of brilliance, but the harsh reality is they're one of the league's weakest defensive teams, and they're not exactly loaded with offensive weapons. The Lynx aren't a team I'm eager to back against top-tier teams, especially on the road. The Atlanta Dream was on a hot streak entering the break with 6 consecutive wins, and their offense is heating up. Trust the model?

MODEL Bets: Minnesota +6

Anthony's leans:


Good luck

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