Anthony P's WNBA Model July 12, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

This betting model is derived directly from a source that provides me with all the information for the Sharp Report which I trust implicitly. This model serves as a foundation for determining and handling game lines and totals. As with any model, it incorporates a statistical analysis of both teams, including factors such as injuries and home-court advantage. The distinctive advantage of this model is the inclusion of adjustments based on public perception and early market evaluation. However, it's important to note that this model doesn't accommodate last-minute adjustments. Therefore, for the most accurate and up-to-date advice, I encourage you to reach out to me directly on my Discord channel.

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WNBA BETTING MODEL FOR JULY 12, 2023

Let's dive into some WNBA action and see if we can uncover some winning opportunities. Losing by the dreaded hook can be incredibly frustrating, but that's the nature of the game. Last night, our model play was on Seattle at +6.5 or better, and even the lines moved in their favor, closing at +5. In the third quarter, it seemed like all hope was lost as they trailed by a considerable margin, but they made a valiant comeback only to fall short by 7 points.

Now, let's take a quick peek at some of the league's trends. Our last update was on July 5, and here's a summary for you:

• Underdogs ATS 53.3%, a big drop since the 66% season peak.

• Away underdogs 50.3%

• Home underdogs moved up from 56 to 57.1%

• Overs were at 53% up from 47.5% while most of the season it was at 50/50
  

Fast forward to July 11, and underdogs remain steady at 53.2%, with away underdogs showing no significant changes. However, home underdogs have seen a rise to 59% since our last update. In the past three updates, home dogs have made a leap from 56% to their current standing. The overs are still dominating at 52.7%.

With the MLB on a break and fewer major sports events, we were hoping to find more value from the model. Unfortunately, that hasn't been the case recently.

Now, let's focus on the games at hand. The New York Liberty opened as -9.5 favorites, but the book's raw projection was at -7. The Indiana Fever, who have suffered seven consecutive losses, have seen New York's line inflated by the books due to public perception. Despite the number dropping to -9, Liberty is still receiving the majority of the betting action with over 75% of the handle. Although Indiana is 1-4 ATS in their last five games, they haven't been getting blown out. New York was favored by 15 points in their last two games but managed to win by a slim 4-point margin each time. Home dogs have been covering at a 60% rate according to my recent update, making Indiana worth a small bet. While the New York Liberty are the superior team, having been on a roll for the past month and having already defeated the Fever this season, Indiana has been losing close games. With a bit of luck, they could find themselves in a more favorable position in the standings. This early game has the potential for some unpredictability, and the Fever may benefit from the support of their home crowd.

As for Seattle, they played last night and now face the challenge of traveling to Atlanta for a back-to-back game. These road back-to-back games can be grueling, even in amateur sports. Their game last night resulted in a blowout with the total surpassing the closing line by 20.5 points. The over has hit in three of the Storm's last five games when playing on no rest, and the Dream have seen the over cash in 10 of their last 14 games overall. Additionally, the over has hit in four of the Storm's last five road games. Seattle's defense has struggled during their six-game losing streak (2-8 L10), and the fatigue from playing on consecutive nights doesn't bode well, especially on the road. On the other hand, the Atlanta Dream is in top shape, boasting five straight wins and now ranking third in the league in scoring. Given Seattle's tired legs on the defensive end and Atlanta's leaky defense, I lean toward taking the over for this game and don't agree with the model.

MODEL Bets: Seattle / Atlanta under 170

Anthony's leans: Indiana +9 or better


Good luck

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