Anthony P's WNBA Model Aug 8, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

This betting model is derived directly from a source that provides me with all the information for the Sharp Report which I trust implicitly. This model serves as a foundation for determining and handling game lines and totals. As with any model, it incorporates a statistical analysis of both teams, including factors such as injuries and home-court advantage. The distinctive advantage of this model is the inclusion of adjustments based on public perception and early market evaluation. However, it's important to note that this model doesn't accommodate last-minute adjustments. Therefore, for the most accurate and up-to-date advice, I encourage you to reach out to me directly on my Discord channel.

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WNBA BETTING MODEL FOR Aug 8, 2023

Liberty’s recent dismantling of the Aces was a sight to behold. It was one of those games where predictions and the final outcome aligned beautifully, making the betting community sigh in collective relief. Yet, as we move ahead, the attention now turns to Thursday's clash between the Mystics and the Mercury, promising a whirlwind of action and, of course, a potential sports bettor's conundrum.

The book's raw projections initially pegged Washington as a -2.5 favorite. An intriguing move, considering that when the line was opened at +2.5, the scales tipped further, moving the line to +3.5. Many pointed fingers at the public perception as the driver. However, the nitty-gritty of sports betting often lies in the details overlooked by many: injuries. Raw projections might show the full strength of a team, but they fail to account for the absence of key players. With Washington's roster missing the likes of Austin, Toliver, EDD, and Atkins, all slated for a return only by mid-August, the game's dynamics change considerably.

Recent records paint an interesting story for both teams. The Mystics have struggled recently, especially against the Western Conference, with a 0-4 ATS in their last four games. The road has not been kind either, with a 1-5 ATS in their last six away games. Phoenix, on the other hand, seems to have a Tuesday jinx, with a 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Tuesday encounters. Additionally, the Mystics have had a tough time in Phoenix, securing only a 1-4 ATS in their last five visits.

Statistically, the Mercury's scoring woes are evident. They sit at the bottom, averaging a meager 77.1 points per game. However, they've shown resilience in defense, ranking eighth by allowing only 83.9 points per contest. A deeper dive into their gameplay reveals a struggle on the rebounding front and a penchant for turnovers – not an ideal combination. Yet, their three-point game remains promising, both in terms of shots made and defense.

Contrast this with the Mystics, who stand seventh in league scoring an average of 80.8 points. Their defensive play shines, being the third stingiest team, conceding just 80.6 points. But, much like the Mercury, the Mystics too have their rebounding concerns. On the brighter side, they've been clinical when it comes to turnovers, both in minimizing their own and forcing their opponents into errors. Their 3-pointer game, both offensively and defensively, further strengthens their case.

So, what's the call for Thursday's showdown?

Given the injuries faced by Washington and their recent struggle on the road, combined with the Mystics' prowess in turnovers, this game might be a lot closer than raw projections suggest. However, leaning slightly towards the home advantage and the Mystics' defensive record, one could argue for a narrow Washington win, but not without a fierce challenge from the Mercury.



MODEL Bets: Mystics +2.5

Anthony's leans: Under 157.5

Good luck

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