Anthony P's WNBA Model Aug 28, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

This betting model is derived directly from a source that provides me with all the information for the Sharp Report which I trust implicitly. This model serves as a foundation for determining and handling game lines and totals. As with any model, it incorporates a statistical analysis of both teams, including factors such as injuries and home-court advantage. The distinctive advantage of this model is the inclusion of adjustments based on public perception and early market evaluation. However, it's important to note that this model doesn't accommodate last-minute adjustments. Therefore, for the most accurate and up-to-date advice, I encourage you to reach out to me directly on my Discord channel.

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WNBA BETTING MODEL FOR AUG 28, 2023

In the intricate dance of sports betting, every nuance matters, and sometimes, the most subtle shifts can offer the most tantalizing opportunities. Such is the case with the New York Liberty and the Las Vegas Aces, two teams that have been trading blows in their recent matchups, creating a fascinating backdrop for bettors.

As highlighted in the recent 'overnight grind' article, there's an intriguing discrepancy in the betting lines for the Liberty. BetRivers has them pegged at +1, a stark contrast to the broader market's -1.5. For those who thrive on exploiting such disparities, this is a golden opportunity.

Historically, when these two teams meet, it's rarely a close affair. Out of their last eight head-to-head games, a whopping six have seen a deviation from the spread by an average of 23 points. This isn't just a statistical anomaly; it's a testament to the unpredictable nature of their matchups. For instance, in August, despite the Liberty being underdogs by 7.5 and 4.5 points in two separate games, they stunned everyone by winning with margins of 20 and 38 points. Conversely, in June and July, the Aces, favored by 6 and 6.5 points, triumphed with margins of 17 and 34 points. Only twice in these eight encounters did both teams maintain an Against The Spread (ATS) margin under six points.

The recent form of the teams adds another layer to this betting conundrum. The Liberty, riding high on a wave of momentum, has emerged victorious in 10 of their last 11 games. They're hot on the heels of the top seed in the WNBA, trailing by just 2.5 games. On the other hand, the Aces, despite their league-topping reputation, have been faltering on the road, with a 1-5 ATS in their last six away games and a concerning 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.

Given these stats, one might be tempted to back the Las Vegas Aces, especially considering the rarity of such favorable lines for them. But it's essential to remember that the Liberty has had the upper hand in 2 of the 3 recent meetings, even clinching the Commissioner's Cup Championship against the Aces on home turf. The Aces' recent loss to the Mystics, combined with this being their fourth consecutive road game, doesn't bode well for them. With the Liberty just a whisker away from the top seed, this game could be pivotal in shaping the end-of-season standings.

In conclusion, while the Aces have the prowess to surprise anyone, the current dynamics suggest a slight edge for the Liberty. As they say in betting circles, when the odds are this enticing, sometimes it's worth taking the plunge.


MODEL Bets: No play
Anthony's leans: No Play

Good luck

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